OsmanDiaz

Looking a Little Shaky...

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
171 9 3
I am starting to get a little nervous after re-charting the impressive gains made by $SPY today. In my last post on Sunday December 27th, I thought SPY             was going to continue its downward leg to fill the gap between ~$204.75 and $203.75, which it very nearly did on Monday. However, it quickly erased its early losses and formed a green hammer pattern by the close. With the gap up in price this morning and strong buying forces throughout the afternoon, it seems as though my prediction of retesting $200.00 by the end of the week may be invalid. I am still bearish overall and think the market will see further selloffs in the beginning of the new year, but with the wind at its back, I'm thinking SPY             might try one last attempt at breaching its mid-December high of ~$208.25 before turing back around.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
  • Candlestick: Solid green, very little wick at top of candle (Shows buyers had control of the market today, but ran a little short of $207.50 resistance. Also shows strong buy-side momentum )
  • Volume: Increasing buying volume
  • Stochastic (Slow): %D Just breaching the 80% mark, %K not quite there yet (Very slightly bearish--There's still some buy-side maneuverability)
  • MACD: Histogram moving into positive territory ( Bullish )

Agree? Disagree? Let me know! Any and all feedback is greatly appreciated. Thanks, and Happy Trading!

Related Ideas

Will Wong
11 months ago
Why do you need to get nervous? Shouldn't you take whatever the chart shows you? Unless of course you are leaning one way or the other.
Reply
OsmanDiaz Will Wong
11 months ago
That's just it: I am leaning bearish on SPY and the markets in general, but after yesterdays gains, it almost seemed like SPY was ready to breakout and move higher. Also, nervous because I am holding put positions lol. Thank for the feedback, Will!
Reply
Trance-Man
11 months ago
I think it is all about oil right now, seems oil will goto 20's so hard to figure any charts now on SPY. Not sure what to think going into 2016, should be interesting. Just seems the markets ran for a long time and now its a presidential year, so might get volatile. Thoughts?
Reply
OsmanDiaz Trance-Man
11 months ago
I completely agree. With /CL bumping its head against the the upper trend line and the MACD histogram moving back towards 0 I think we're going to re-test ~$34.50 within the next week. With all the headwinds the S&P is facing next year (oil included), I don't see how traders will be able to keep SPY moving in a positive direction. You don't have a 7 year bull run without a bear run lurking around the corner. Thanks for the feedback, Trance-Man!
+1 Reply
Trance-Man OsmanDiaz
11 months ago
No problem dude, best from Las Vegas!
Reply
Will Wong
11 months ago
With the geopolitical situation so fragile, oil is just one ship sinking at the Straits of Hormuz from going to Da Moon. Just saying!!!
Reply
OsmanDiaz Will Wong
11 months ago
The geopolitical issues will definitely add some volatility to the markets, especially with regards to China's strong grip on their own markets. Falling oil prices are the most visible signal at the moment; I am personally more focused on the increasing level of corporate debt defaults here in the US. It feels like we're on the precipice...
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I find that often when I am confused about the market's direction, that the market is confused too and goes sideways. I day trade the index and intra-day trading has been very sideways (moves up and moves down). The daily and intra-day charts mirror each other in that respect. Just a thought.
Reply
OsmanDiaz MichaelRudelich
11 months ago
I bounce back and forth between the daily, hourly, and 15 minute candlestick charts myself and your right: They do tend to mirror the overall trends, or lack thereof. Thanks for the feedback Michael! And sorry for the delay in replying; I was on vacation. Hope you had a spectacular New Year!
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