Exciting times are coming tomorrow, so I figured I could do an update and recap.
So going into this week, I was bearish, technical probability was bearish, momentum was bullish. The immediate target on Friday was 415 however if you watched my update video you would know that with the revised calculations based on Tuesday open that brought the short target up to around 417.
We actually hit 416 and that is where we found support and bounced again.
The immediate price action looks incredibly bearish. The issue I have with this is this:
We have bullish 99s everywhere. UPRO, DIA, UDOW, SPY. Thus, I personally am targeting 423 on SPY. Yes, the PA is incredibly bearish but this leads me to the next point;
Retail aside, short interest remains pretty low. The people shorting this are retail from what I can see (looking at general total PTC ratios via USI:PCC). Going into the week we were at a PTCR ratio of over 4 on the S&P specifically. We closed today with a PTCR of below 1.2.
We have somewhat worked ourselves slightly out of overbought territory but not really. This means, if we do rally and push into the 423's this week, I would be inclined to bet we will see some hard selling next week. But I won't speculate too much until we see what the math says leading into next week. And also I am prepared for this to just tank into oblivion at this point because its really looking weak and like its faltering. But the problem is it does this and then randomly goes parabolic, destroying everyone positioned short. So its a hard call here.
Projected targets for tomorrow are as follows: To the upside, 419.66 followed by 421.13. To the downside, 415.94 followed by 414.19. Momentum favours a move to the downside, but again, not really buying into it at this point with multiple unrealized 99% prob targets and only 2 trading days left in the week. It is possible to continue the tankage tomorrow followed by a dramatic upside move on Friday though.
But more excitingly, tomorrow will mark a 2nd in a year occurrence. We, or more so I, get 2 of them every year. That is our 6 month trading range!!! And its incredibly reliable, let's just take a quick little looksee:
Aside from major catalyst events, the range we are given tomorrow will be the range we will likely be stuck with till next year. Its very nerve wracking/exciting and many other things all at the same time. I am really excited to see what the math prints out as our next 6 month trading range. From where our highs could fall to where our lows could fall.
In ALL of history, it has only fallen out of this range 3 times. 2008 crisis, COVID Crash and the 2022 bear market fiasco.
So this is really exciting! And yes, we will have a 6 month 99!! I may be the only one pretty pumped about this, but I really am dying to know. I was going to work on something to do this for futures so we could get a sneak peak tonight but I am far too tired to sit in front of SPSS or R and try and figure this out, so we'll just have to wait till tomorrow.
All in all, I am incredibly neutral. As neutral as they come. More neutral than Switzerland in 1941. But I do anticipate upside here. But I have been wrong before, so please tread cautiously.
Oh and about the 6 month range, I may do a video tomorrow going over it, I may just post an addendum to this. Leaning on the side of just posting an addendum and maybe going into more detail with my normal market outlook Monday. But it is kind of a big deal to have this range that will be our future for the next 6 months, so maybe I will make a point of a video. We'll see.
Anyway, thanks for reading! Safe trades everyone and let me know your comments and questions below!
So going into this week, I was bearish, technical probability was bearish, momentum was bullish. The immediate target on Friday was 415 however if you watched my update video you would know that with the revised calculations based on Tuesday open that brought the short target up to around 417.
We actually hit 416 and that is where we found support and bounced again.
The immediate price action looks incredibly bearish. The issue I have with this is this:
We have bullish 99s everywhere. UPRO, DIA, UDOW, SPY. Thus, I personally am targeting 423 on SPY. Yes, the PA is incredibly bearish but this leads me to the next point;
Retail aside, short interest remains pretty low. The people shorting this are retail from what I can see (looking at general total PTC ratios via USI:PCC). Going into the week we were at a PTCR ratio of over 4 on the S&P specifically. We closed today with a PTCR of below 1.2.
We have somewhat worked ourselves slightly out of overbought territory but not really. This means, if we do rally and push into the 423's this week, I would be inclined to bet we will see some hard selling next week. But I won't speculate too much until we see what the math says leading into next week. And also I am prepared for this to just tank into oblivion at this point because its really looking weak and like its faltering. But the problem is it does this and then randomly goes parabolic, destroying everyone positioned short. So its a hard call here.
Projected targets for tomorrow are as follows: To the upside, 419.66 followed by 421.13. To the downside, 415.94 followed by 414.19. Momentum favours a move to the downside, but again, not really buying into it at this point with multiple unrealized 99% prob targets and only 2 trading days left in the week. It is possible to continue the tankage tomorrow followed by a dramatic upside move on Friday though.
But more excitingly, tomorrow will mark a 2nd in a year occurrence. We, or more so I, get 2 of them every year. That is our 6 month trading range!!! And its incredibly reliable, let's just take a quick little looksee:
Aside from major catalyst events, the range we are given tomorrow will be the range we will likely be stuck with till next year. Its very nerve wracking/exciting and many other things all at the same time. I am really excited to see what the math prints out as our next 6 month trading range. From where our highs could fall to where our lows could fall.
In ALL of history, it has only fallen out of this range 3 times. 2008 crisis, COVID Crash and the 2022 bear market fiasco.
So this is really exciting! And yes, we will have a 6 month 99!! I may be the only one pretty pumped about this, but I really am dying to know. I was going to work on something to do this for futures so we could get a sneak peak tonight but I am far too tired to sit in front of SPSS or R and try and figure this out, so we'll just have to wait till tomorrow.
All in all, I am incredibly neutral. As neutral as they come. More neutral than Switzerland in 1941. But I do anticipate upside here. But I have been wrong before, so please tread cautiously.
Oh and about the 6 month range, I may do a video tomorrow going over it, I may just post an addendum to this. Leaning on the side of just posting an addendum and maybe going into more detail with my normal market outlook Monday. But it is kind of a big deal to have this range that will be our future for the next 6 months, so maybe I will make a point of a video. We'll see.
Anyway, thanks for reading! Safe trades everyone and let me know your comments and questions below!
Trade closed: target reached:
423 reached and surpassed.
I am still long some of the UPRO position as we did not take out the 99% target (423) yesterday.
Today, I am going to see if we can push up to around 425.62 which is the first weekly high target. IF we actually break that, then we could head right for the second weekly high target at around 428:
The concern of course that you can see is we are pushing extensive overboughtness on the Normal Distribution levels. So if you are also still long, make sure to trail!
Safe trades everyone and happy Friday!
I am still long some of the UPRO position as we did not take out the 99% target (423) yesterday.
Today, I am going to see if we can push up to around 425.62 which is the first weekly high target. IF we actually break that, then we could head right for the second weekly high target at around 428:
The concern of course that you can see is we are pushing extensive overboughtness on the Normal Distribution levels. So if you are also still long, make sure to trail!
Safe trades everyone and happy Friday!
Trade closed: target reached:
Excellent.
All additional TPs hit.
But I am still long haha. Just scaled out some. Letting it play out to EOD because most days like today lead to rallying towards EOD but keeping a SL set aggressively because this actually pumped more intra-day than expected. Usually it would wait till EOD to rally right to such an aggressively high target. We will see.
All additional TPs hit.
But I am still long haha. Just scaled out some. Letting it play out to EOD because most days like today lead to rallying towards EOD but keeping a SL set aggressively because this actually pumped more intra-day than expected. Usually it would wait till EOD to rally right to such an aggressively high target. We will see.
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I am sorry! I mixed up my months. We don't get the 6 month range till next month.
I do apologize, I was so excited and now I come with bad news haha.
But this will give me time to develop these ranges for QQQ/NQ, DIA and IWM.
So as of next month, we will have our end of year range for, presumably all of those tickers data permitting, but for sure SPY!
Sorry again and safe trades everyone!