Went over the sectors and other indexes this weekend. I think we are going higher; I'll try to explain and convey what I see sector by sector.
.. Let's start with NYSE ( NYA)
NYSE represents the broader market . If you have any other stocks on your watch list besides big tech you'll notice the majority of them closed with weekly higher high.
Bullflag or broadening wedge..
Similar setup with the Dow Jones (DJI).. The 3 sectors that power the dow are Financials, health energy.
IWM (Russell2000) major double bottom breakout over 179.. as long as 183 holds this will hit 192.
Smaller time frame you can see the bull flag . Notice how the selling volume on the daily decreased Friday and how Thursday and Fridays candle closed inside of Wed candle (Continuation ).
Healthcare sector (XLV)
Bounced off primary trendline (White line) ,
broke over resistance ( yellow line ) and then Retested with a strong bounce and volume Friday.
The breakout and retest was bullish but it got smacked down twice last week at its 200sma.
Lots of Resistance at 132.. will need to breakover 132 to move higher.
So Its neutral until over 132 or back under yellow trendline.
XLF.. huge double bottom showing here. We closed right at the neckline here, which is the neckline for the Double too that took place in March. Over 33.50 and this sector and the banks in it are taking off.
Similar to XLV, looks bullish but not a confirmed breakout yet
XLE - first thing I noticed here was the smack down on both weekly and daily 50sma.. weekly candle closed as a dragonfly doji which indicates weak sellers below 80. Daily candle structure very similar to IWM. Needs to breakover and close above 50sma for the breakout. Long to 87 I it breaks out.
Wouldn't short energy as long as it closes above 80 (21ema).
I'm about to go over 3 tech heavy sectors
1.XLC
2. XLY
3.XLK
XLC-
this sector is breaking out of very large inverted H&S that you can see on the weekly.
You want to know why stocks like Meta and Nflx are making rebound moves never before seen on the market? There's never a inverted H&S this big on any tech sector EVER! Nvda and SMH just completed theirs . I wouldn't be surprised if Meta and Googl recover all of there losses if this pattern completes. The weekly is over bought but In my experience , with Head n shoulder on the hourly and daily , Overbought indicators are useless. There's a big difference between Overbought and Bearish!
XLY - the home of Tsla and Amzn
Another major pattern playing out here. Nvda pushed higher compared to AMD when SMH broke out. This breakout here will benefit either Amzn or tsla or both.
XLK - The biggest sector
Same inverted H&S
Daily time frame is flagging or distribution.
Well have to see how it plays out, but notice how they buy it up at 163.00. Now stroll back to last spring and look at the price action at 163. If it breaks below 163 and closes below the. I think it will correct back to its primary trendline
This flag will determine if aapl heads to 190-195
In all of these tech sectors there is a primary trendline from December lows. Unless it breaks it there's no bearish reversal just a pullback or correction. I don't like longs on Nvda and AMD but I think .
Googl
Meta
Nflx
Tsla
Aapl
Are going higher.
IXIC
Megaphone setup on the hourly
With a bearish target of 12,900
On the daily the 21ema is also at 12,900. Always remember whenever you short something, the 21ema is your first obstacle or target so be prepared to take profits if it bounces
The weekly
If 12,900 holds , we head to 14,620 to completed Inverted H&S pattern
Remember this, technicals follow the bigger time frame. Example -
If you see a bullish engulfing candle on the previous weekly candle , then chances are we will finish higher on the week, so it doesn't matter if Tuesday had a nasty candle because we could sell on Wed and rebound by Friday.
I say that to say this, the weekly pattern on these sectors are giant bullish patterns, the daily closes don't matter much in the bigger picture.
Spy
Clear breakout over 416.. anything above that from a weekly support perspective is bullish.
Thursday.
Daily RSI is struggling at resistance . The RSI support is around 424.
Hourly
Closed near trendline support (White line).
Drop below trendline support and
426 , 424 are the targets .
Bounce off trendline
And 432 ,436 Are the targets ..
If those bullish moves play out on the sectors we are heading back to 450-460. I know the Macro looks shifty but to be honest the macro has looked skeptical all year.
Full disclosure, I don't own any stocks and haven't owned any since 2021. I don't care if this goes up or down, but I do like red because the dump is always quicker then the climb.
In my experience quad witching isn't guaranteed bearish. Only in Sept and March do you have a higher chance of a bearish quad witching simply because the cycle of this month's are bearish.
PPI and CPI will cause nice intra week moves but they mean nothing in overall market direction. FOMC is everything.
Liquidity drain? let's see what happens. I know alot of Furus who lost a chunk waiting on a blk swan.
If anything corrects it will be tech! But tech will need to break that uptrend for it to be more than just a correction.
To sum it up, Tech should continue to pullback and underperform broader market until FOMC.
Banks and energy still haven't recovered from March and mays sell off. I'll be looking to trade them again this week.
WFC is my favorite setup above 42.50..
Exact same double bottom as XLF.
After this week I'm taking a vacation until late July. I'll be trading and updating until thursday.
.. Let's start with NYSE ( NYA)
NYSE represents the broader market . If you have any other stocks on your watch list besides big tech you'll notice the majority of them closed with weekly higher high.
Bullflag or broadening wedge..
Similar setup with the Dow Jones (DJI).. The 3 sectors that power the dow are Financials, health energy.
IWM (Russell2000) major double bottom breakout over 179.. as long as 183 holds this will hit 192.
Smaller time frame you can see the bull flag . Notice how the selling volume on the daily decreased Friday and how Thursday and Fridays candle closed inside of Wed candle (Continuation ).
Healthcare sector (XLV)
Bounced off primary trendline (White line) ,
broke over resistance ( yellow line ) and then Retested with a strong bounce and volume Friday.
The breakout and retest was bullish but it got smacked down twice last week at its 200sma.
Lots of Resistance at 132.. will need to breakover 132 to move higher.
So Its neutral until over 132 or back under yellow trendline.
XLF.. huge double bottom showing here. We closed right at the neckline here, which is the neckline for the Double too that took place in March. Over 33.50 and this sector and the banks in it are taking off.
Similar to XLV, looks bullish but not a confirmed breakout yet
XLE - first thing I noticed here was the smack down on both weekly and daily 50sma.. weekly candle closed as a dragonfly doji which indicates weak sellers below 80. Daily candle structure very similar to IWM. Needs to breakover and close above 50sma for the breakout. Long to 87 I it breaks out.
Wouldn't short energy as long as it closes above 80 (21ema).
I'm about to go over 3 tech heavy sectors
1.XLC
2. XLY
3.XLK
XLC-
this sector is breaking out of very large inverted H&S that you can see on the weekly.
You want to know why stocks like Meta and Nflx are making rebound moves never before seen on the market? There's never a inverted H&S this big on any tech sector EVER! Nvda and SMH just completed theirs . I wouldn't be surprised if Meta and Googl recover all of there losses if this pattern completes. The weekly is over bought but In my experience , with Head n shoulder on the hourly and daily , Overbought indicators are useless. There's a big difference between Overbought and Bearish!
XLY - the home of Tsla and Amzn
Another major pattern playing out here. Nvda pushed higher compared to AMD when SMH broke out. This breakout here will benefit either Amzn or tsla or both.
XLK - The biggest sector
Same inverted H&S
Daily time frame is flagging or distribution.
Well have to see how it plays out, but notice how they buy it up at 163.00. Now stroll back to last spring and look at the price action at 163. If it breaks below 163 and closes below the. I think it will correct back to its primary trendline
This flag will determine if aapl heads to 190-195
In all of these tech sectors there is a primary trendline from December lows. Unless it breaks it there's no bearish reversal just a pullback or correction. I don't like longs on Nvda and AMD but I think .
Googl
Meta
Nflx
Tsla
Aapl
Are going higher.
IXIC
Megaphone setup on the hourly
With a bearish target of 12,900
On the daily the 21ema is also at 12,900. Always remember whenever you short something, the 21ema is your first obstacle or target so be prepared to take profits if it bounces
The weekly
Remember this, technicals follow the bigger time frame. Example -
If you see a bullish engulfing candle on the previous weekly candle , then chances are we will finish higher on the week, so it doesn't matter if Tuesday had a nasty candle because we could sell on Wed and rebound by Friday.
I say that to say this, the weekly pattern on these sectors are giant bullish patterns, the daily closes don't matter much in the bigger picture.
Spy
Clear breakout over 416.. anything above that from a weekly support perspective is bullish.
Daily RSI is struggling at resistance . The RSI support is around 424.
Hourly
Drop below trendline support and
426 , 424 are the targets .
Bounce off trendline
And 432 ,436 Are the targets ..
If those bullish moves play out on the sectors we are heading back to 450-460. I know the Macro looks shifty but to be honest the macro has looked skeptical all year.
Full disclosure, I don't own any stocks and haven't owned any since 2021. I don't care if this goes up or down, but I do like red because the dump is always quicker then the climb.
In my experience quad witching isn't guaranteed bearish. Only in Sept and March do you have a higher chance of a bearish quad witching simply because the cycle of this month's are bearish.
PPI and CPI will cause nice intra week moves but they mean nothing in overall market direction. FOMC is everything.
Liquidity drain? let's see what happens. I know alot of Furus who lost a chunk waiting on a blk swan.
If anything corrects it will be tech! But tech will need to break that uptrend for it to be more than just a correction.
To sum it up, Tech should continue to pullback and underperform broader market until FOMC.
Banks and energy still haven't recovered from March and mays sell off. I'll be looking to trade them again this week.
WFC is my favorite setup above 42.50..
Exact same double bottom as XLF.
After this week I'm taking a vacation until late July. I'll be trading and updating until thursday.
Comment:
Don't like the position tech is opening up at.. Here's Nq 1 hour chart.. I expect tech to pull back at the open. Could be a rubberband short though, meaning they could chop it up later ..
Use the qqq levels I posted
Use the qqq levels I posted
Comment:
Here's XLk and QQQ 30 min charts..
Both pushed up to the top of their ranges.. and so did SMH..
Either cpi will cause a breakout or flush to support.
Small caps..IWM broke out of that flag I mentioned .. over 187 and 192 is next
Both pushed up to the top of their ranges.. and so did SMH..
Either cpi will cause a breakout or flush to support.
Small caps..IWM broke out of that flag I mentioned .. over 187 and 192 is next
Comment:
Well they are closing the gap on QQQ. If CPI comes in cool, they'll do it premarket
Comment:
Spy 1hour .. long as 432 holds 435 is next up then 437..
.below 432 we see 429.60
.below 432 we see 429.60
Comment:
Morning... Spy has some tough resistance around 435-436. the 15min RSI and MFI overbought
Don't like the ETF Long play today. Doesn't mean individual stocks won't rally just means when the Spy itself doesn't have much upside so be picky with who u long
Don't like the ETF Long play today. Doesn't mean individual stocks won't rally just means when the Spy itself doesn't have much upside so be picky with who u long
Comment:
Financials, metals and Small caps are breaking out
Comment:
Big move on XLF.. next stop 200sma.. if it can break over that Banks will run even more
Comment:
Dow ran into some stiff resistance
Tighten your stop on calls.
Tighten your stop on calls.
Comment:
IXIC .. Nasdaq 1hour chart.
Broke out of a megaphone yesterday.. the measured move isn't done yet.. I have a target for 13,682 but the question is, will it back test the Megaphone before going for the target?
Broke out of a megaphone yesterday.. the measured move isn't done yet.. I have a target for 13,682 but the question is, will it back test the Megaphone before going for the target?
Comment:
Spy choppy because tech but IWM is solid bar.. next stop 191-192
Comment:
Spy 2hour Chart.. pretty much a channel trade here..
Break back below 435 and 432 is target
Break back below 435 and 432 is target
Comment:
That 436 area on the spy. Place a horizontal line on at 436
Now Go back to July and August 2021; also
April 2022. You'll see the price action as strong support and resistance.
Would wait for 438 to long spy again. Next target 445
Now Go back to July and August 2021; also
April 2022. You'll see the price action as strong support and resistance.
Would wait for 438 to long spy again. Next target 445
Comment:
NYA (NYSE) weekly chart
Broke out of the pennant in yellow .
Now it's at year long resistance..
Spy only reflects top 500 stocks, while NYSE represents a broader 2800.
We'll know tomorrow if it's a breakout.
Broke out of the pennant in yellow .
Now it's at year long resistance..
Spy only reflects top 500 stocks, while NYSE represents a broader 2800.
We'll know tomorrow if it's a breakout.
Comment:
So vix broke out of a falling wedge last week. Here's the update.
Hypothetical move on Vix if Powell goes hawkish amd market pulls back. 18.30
A break over 15.50 would kick off this bullish patterns.
If vix goes back to 18 spy will retest 424.
Hypothetical move on Vix if Powell goes hawkish amd market pulls back. 18.30
A break over 15.50 would kick off this bullish patterns.
If vix goes back to 18 spy will retest 424.
Comment:
1.Dji daily candle outside Bollinger band ✅
2. Spy daily and weekly candle outside Bbands ✅
3.NYSE tagging upper Bollinger band ✅
4. QQQ weekly candle outside Bollingerband ✅
It's cool to scalps some longs but swings are a gamble now
2. Spy daily and weekly candle outside Bbands ✅
3.NYSE tagging upper Bollinger band ✅
4. QQQ weekly candle outside Bollingerband ✅
It's cool to scalps some longs but swings are a gamble now
Comment:
So for the last 6 rate decisions the true direction of the market wasn't decided until the last 1hour of the market; Basically once Powell finished talking. I think the best setup with the highest profit potential will come the last hour.
With that being said, yesterday I posted that the Dow and NYSE both hit resistance and pulled back; As of this morning that resistance still holds . If you buy non tech calls before any breakout be nimble.
The first thing stood out to me this morning was the Money flow and RSI on the ES 3-4 hour chart.. it's too Overbought! I'm expecting a 2% pullback this week!
Since the weekly and daily patterns are bullish and the hourly is Overbought you could have a 1-2 day flush event and a continued truck higher...
The channel since 424 break has formed a Wedge. Yesterday Spy tagged the top of that Wedge at and just grinded higher.
If they push it at the open, we could tag 438.50.
I'm keeping an open mind here but IMO we may flush hard after Powell late day speech
With that being said, yesterday I posted that the Dow and NYSE both hit resistance and pulled back; As of this morning that resistance still holds . If you buy non tech calls before any breakout be nimble.
The first thing stood out to me this morning was the Money flow and RSI on the ES 3-4 hour chart.. it's too Overbought! I'm expecting a 2% pullback this week!
Since the weekly and daily patterns are bullish and the hourly is Overbought you could have a 1-2 day flush event and a continued truck higher...
The channel since 424 break has formed a Wedge. Yesterday Spy tagged the top of that Wedge at and just grinded higher.
If they push it at the open, we could tag 438.50.
I'm keeping an open mind here but IMO we may flush hard after Powell late day speech
Comment:
Dow Jones transportation has been trading inside a bullish uptrend last 2 weeks.
Daily candle outside its Bollinger bands at the the top of the channel..
Most airline stocks are also Overbought. Looking for a pullback the next 2 days
Daily candle outside its Bollinger bands at the the top of the channel..
Most airline stocks are also Overbought. Looking for a pullback the next 2 days
Comment:
I'm waiting for either a 440 test or Powell to speak to open my short.. 441.50 is my stop.. no odte for me..
Comment:
It's some things I want to point out that you can only see on SPX.. go on your daily time frame and look at 4390; place a horizontal bar there.. now go look at the price from 2021 and 2022 in that area
Also place these trendlines on your daily chart.
Look at the rejections! It's valid.
No kicking the goal post on resistance, it's just that some things you can see on SPX that you can't on spy.
Also place these trendlines on your daily chart.
Look at the rejections! It's valid.
No kicking the goal post on resistance, it's just that some things you can see on SPX that you can't on spy.
Comment:
Closed gap.. Bounced off supportbfor now
Comment:
Dow back tested breakout and Bounced.. for now
Comment:
Spy 5min... if it breaks over 437 it will go for 440.. 437 is the pivot area. If it rejects 437 we head back to 433. Below 433 is 430
Comment:
So I went over QQQ mostly since it's the biggest driver..
Daily RSI closed back at resistance today. Last week when it tagged this resistance on 6/7 we had a 2½% drop ... Let's see what happens tomorrow
Like I said earlier,
NYSE , Dow Jones and IWM all rejected at their breakouts again today.
I showed you where dow Bounced off its retest and spy Bounced off its wedge support.
Here's QQQ which Bounced off there trendline support and 360 gap support.
Resistance 366
Over that 369
Support 360-361
Below that 357
Daily RSI closed back at resistance today. Last week when it tagged this resistance on 6/7 we had a 2½% drop ... Let's see what happens tomorrow
Like I said earlier,
NYSE , Dow Jones and IWM all rejected at their breakouts again today.
I showed you where dow Bounced off its retest and spy Bounced off its wedge support.
Here's QQQ which Bounced off there trendline support and 360 gap support.
Resistance 366
Over that 369
Support 360-361
Below that 357
Comment:
NQ and ES Money flow on the 1hour are oversold.. QQQ and Spy Money flow are overbought still on the 2hour..
What that means is you could have a dip buy at the open followed by selling later in the day. Over sold indicators have been more reliable than Overbought indicators the last 30days.
The key to any real leg up Is QQQ breaking above 366! Watch that number.
For us to go any meaningful low we will have to break yesterday's lows across the board
What that means is you could have a dip buy at the open followed by selling later in the day. Over sold indicators have been more reliable than Overbought indicators the last 30days.
The key to any real leg up Is QQQ breaking above 366! Watch that number.
For us to go any meaningful low we will have to break yesterday's lows across the board
Comment:
Spy 1hour chart
Tagged wedge resistance here
Dow and NYSE approaching resistance again..
Tighten stops on calls.
Aapl, MSFT, and UNH responsible for majority of gains on dow.
Tagged wedge resistance here
Tighten stops on calls.
Aapl, MSFT, and UNH responsible for majority of gains on dow.
Comment:
Dow Jones daily chart and RSI
At resistance here. Very tough resistance.
I don't know if it can break out or not but if it does you're going to see A major blue chip rally. If it corrects from here things will get nasty and the broader market will down turn.
At resistance here. Very tough resistance.
I don't know if it can break out or not but if it does you're going to see A major blue chip rally. If it corrects from here things will get nasty and the broader market will down turn.
Comment:
Expect a pullback today earlier on then volatility.. don't get comfortable short or long especially if your 0dte.
I like puts at the open.
MSFT 347.50
Stop loss 351.00
I like puts at the open.
MSFT 347.50
Stop loss 351.00
Comment:
Covered on Msft.. 100%..
Done for the day guys .. I'll be back with an update before the close
Done for the day guys .. I'll be back with an update before the close
Comment:
I'm expecting 450 next week..
Daily over bought but unless we break uptrend from May I expect momentum to continue.
Nasdaq (Ixic) still wants to close the gap at 14,200
If spy breaks over 450, it's going to close that gap at 465.
..
I'll be gone till middle of July , I won't be updating any post .. Take care, lose the bias and trade with am open mind. ✌
Daily over bought but unless we break uptrend from May I expect momentum to continue.
Nasdaq (Ixic) still wants to close the gap at 14,200
If spy breaks over 450, it's going to close that gap at 465.
..
I'll be gone till middle of July , I won't be updating any post .. Take care, lose the bias and trade with am open mind. ✌
Spy
Resistance- 432.
Above that 435
Support - 429.60
Below that 426
Qqq
Resistance 357
Above that 361
Support 355
Below that 353.50
Vix up 5% having no affect 💀.
Stock pickers day , don't over stay your trade short or long