SPY New High Trend Channel Targets

The chart above follows the SPY since the May 22 top through a 22 bar decline to the June 24 bottom. Since June 24 the SPY rose for 16 of 21 bars and recovered the entire decline, trading 2.4 billion shares, before taking a five day rest on 526 million shares (the last week). *The volume calculations estimates (based on adjusting the volume moving average to the length of the wave in question and multiplying by the length of the wave.)*
Today was a strong bar with the entire body above resistance and volume right on the five day average. Above 170, the indication is upward and onto new highs. And being August it might do so on light volume .
The blue trend line is the base and the red and gray are clones placed on the top July 15 and 24 tops. The clones may be resistance zones as we rise to record highs. It will be interesting to see how prices react at the red and gray trend lines over the next 1-3 months.


By totaling the volume traded in each wave, we can see the "effort" involved in the formation of the wave. The ABC decline from the May 22 top on the daily chart lasted 22 bars and traded roughly 3.9B shares. The weekly chart shows that this decline was the lighter on volume and shorter in duration than the two preceding declines in 2012. AKA, diminishing volume on the declines, a bullish sign.
The consolidation under 170 since June 25 has likely already discounted the weak non-farm payrolls number. Continued strength is dependent upon support around 169 holding.