StockMarketMonk

StockMarketMonk

As I write, the SPY is holding slightly below all-time highs despite this mornings disappointing non-farm payrolls data. It is my opinion that the last 5 days of consolidation below 170 have already discounted the number and we are looking at new all-time highs over the next 1-3 months. In this chart we see that the most recent down wave between May 22 and June 24...

StockMarketMonk

The chart above follows the SPY since the May 22 top through a 22 bar decline to the June 24 bottom. Since June 24 the SPY rose for 16 of 21 bars and recovered the entire decline, trading 2.4 billion shares, before taking a five day rest on 526 million shares (the last week). *The volume calculations estimates (based on adjusting the volume moving average to the...

StockMarketMonk

[ [ ]] The trading idea above is meant to be combined with the SPY Minuette Impulse Wave Count found on my profile www.tradingview.com [ [ ]] The chart above shows a complete 5 minute wave impulse move from June 24 to July 24. Since then, we have drawn out waves a and b of the minute corrective wave and as of this morning sit in the middle of wave c. We have the...

StockMarketMonk

[ [ ]] The trading idea above is meant to be combined with the SPY Minute Corrective Wave Count found on my profile www.tradingview.com [ [ ]] Since June 24 the SPY has drawn out 5 minuette impulse waves lower, and 3 minuette corrective waves higher. As I write, prices have just topped out around 168.50 marking the top of minuette wave 2. The completion of all...

StockMarketMonk

It appears the SPY needs to take a breather before continuing on with the up trend. The correction is normal and healthy as the SPY has not fallen by more than 1% since early July. Keeping the bigger picture in mind, the May/June correction of almost 8% was intermediate in significance. This consolidation comes as SPY tests the May highs. Looking for support...

StockMarketMonk

The chart uses a combination of Elliott waves, trend channels, Fibonacci extensions and circle lines (the vertical dotted lines) to arrive at a target for the end of the fifth sub-minuette wave (purple roman numerals). The trend channel is derived from the trend line drawn across the July 3rd (purple ii) and July 16 (purple iv) bottoms. Upon reaching the upper...

StockMarketMonk

The chart shows the Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Financials (XLF) and Industrial (XLI) sector ETFs as of Friday's close. These sectors have been the best performers since the March 2009 bottom and also led the charge upward from the November 2012 bottom. If we are to see new highs in the S&P 500, these sectors will have to lead the way. Consumer Discretionary is...

StockMarketMonk

The hourly chart above shows the decline in the SPY since May 22. As of Friday, June 28 close, prices sit in the middle of a minor downtrend channel, derived from the downtrend line drawn across the May 22 and June 18 tops. In my analysis of the weekly chart of SPY I call for a decline through the end of the year. The purpose of this analysis will be to pinpoint...

StockMarketMonk

The chart shows the bull market in the SPY beginning March 2009. By looking at the Elliot Wave counts in the context of the long term trend channel, traders can develop a "feeling" for the maturity of the trends in play. Brief Elliot Wave Overview A quick breakdown of how Elliott waves work should help to clarify the concepts contained in this analysis. The...