tylerwitucki

Waiting for the next Market Crash

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Incoming High Volatility Resembling 'Black Tuesday'

Increased spending, debt, inflation , and uncertainty are getting out of hand as well as political instability and international tensions during a pandemic and a recession. We may never see a crash like 'Black Tuesday' again since strict regulations were implemented, but chart Indicators are showing high weakness at levels not seen in the last 27 years or more.

When in doubt, zoom out.

In recent months SPY has been in a sideways price trend traveling between strong levels of support and resistance . This consolidation trend may be getting ready to decide the next trend direction. This action is occurring above the channel which may appear as a false breakout that would send it back down within the channel. Even if the price decides to instead raise, the price will eventually have to return back within the channel. Expect volatility in the long-term.

However it could take months or years before a reversal in the price trend occurs. This bearish outlook has a significant impact for long-term traders. The increased uncertainty and risks could send investors to other Investment vehicles, further weakening the market.

A closer look

Zoom in to see the current ascending wedged that we have been in since entering the pandemic in 2020. Ascending wedges indicate continuations or reversals of the trend. Based on the relatively small size of the wedge , it will likely be a similar sized measured move in either direction. If a catalyst appears with high market weakness it could trigger a panic selloff. Expect volatility in the short to mid-term.

Chart Settings

The charted data shown above dating back to 1994 is adjusted to follow the channel of the 100 year market data. TradingView will only display data to 1994. I'm unable to link the 100 year price chart, but it will show the channel aligning near the same points.

Scale Price Chart Only - On
Logarithmic - On

This isn't absolutely accurate, but it shows obvious warning signs to help make better trading decisions.

Comments

go make that on channel on SPX, its wild to see how low its going to go
+1 Reply
It’s not a crash. But here we go😂
+1 Reply
tylerwitucki zzzikaikazzz
@zzzikaikazzz, It's difficult to say. Perhaps not a market "crash", but the term is often used when reporting on the topic from Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, Ray Dalio, Harry Dent, Howard Marks, Suze Orman, and other strategists. Still an upcoming bear market isn't pleasant.
Reply
1) this isnt even a channel lmfao not even close 2) turn off log charts unless you want to end up broke imagine trying to say there is a channel with $200 vs $2000 range lmao. In all honestly you need a HARD reset on learning.
Reply
tylerwitucki DigitalData
@DigitalData, As stated above this chart isn't entirely accurate, I moved the channel in ward to fit this chart's timeframe. We can't make a definitive channel on the market. However this mockup channel follows a clear ~100 year trend direction which this chart is based off of (I couldn't post this link above). Here it is https://ibb.co/XswL5Xf
From my understanding, log charts are typically more fitting for long term data. Turning off log data shows more of a channel on this 27 year chart, not less.
Reply
DigitalData tylerwitucki
@tylerwitucki, dude you cant create a channel using log chart think about it if the bottom is .000001 and top is 10000 it only works with log on its not really a channel id suggest never again using log ever. Trust me man
Reply
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