You will be happy to know the probs next week actually support continuation down, lol.
But we have a news packed week! And volatility and VIX is super high.
You will see this in the actual projected levels. The biggest thing you should notice is that we have a very wide bottom range this week. That's because of the huge amount of volatility, the math broadens the range in anticipation of further bigger moves.
You will also notice that the TPs are all in the 370s.
If you remember from the last few ideas I posted, 380 was the initial TP on a break of that monthly bearish threshold. But now it seems that that is a conservative estimate based on the data for next week.
Its crazy how fast things move.
Also, if you have been reading my ideas you knew that overall, I was personally targeting the 6 month low range on SPX. This was the basis of my more longer term swing. Here is our progress to that range so far:
I am a little frustrated about this because I did trim back my short position leading into last week as a risk management play, only because the probability for last week was fairly bullish seeming and I thought I could re-enter at a better price. It was a mistake obviously. But, its actually good because I have now added something to my swing rules. The new rule that I have added is: "Never modify a long term swing based on a short term assessment".
The issue being, of course, the longer term probabilities favored SPX hitting that 6 month low range. The price action supported this as well. But I modified that play on the basis of a hugely small TF assessment in comparison (the 1 week assessment).
Should have been the rule all along, but you know, you live and you learn. Even after 6 years I still make tons and tons of mistakes all the time.
I also did those 6 months levels on SPY, so here they are:
First target is at 368.
Overall analysis:
Anyway, reference target is in the chart. We broke back below that trendline with no fight at all. Perhaps we will re-test it, perhaps not. We'll have to see.
We have a slew of news coming this week which will make playing SPY more frustrating than normal. The preferred target on the probabilities is actually 378 followed by 374.
By the month end, I am expecting us to at least see 372. Reason being, the 3 month range on SPY ends this month and the first target is 372. Lots of confluence between the weeky/monthly and 6 month probabilities in this general area, a lot of math agreement, so I am thinking that that is probably where we are going to head to. Maybe not this upcoming week but next week there is no relief from the onslaught of news.
As of right now the immediate TP is 378. Breaking this will hopefully bring us to 374.
SPY is not on my playlist for day trading this week. I will be looking to add short around the reference target (purple line). But would really love for a re-test of that bearish trendline and rejection. So let's see if we can get that.
On my day trade list for this week is SOX and XOP actually. XOP is looking like it could be flourishing in this market catastrophe this week based on the cart, so should be pretty interesting.
As always, let me know your questions below and safe trades everyone!
But we have a news packed week! And volatility and VIX is super high.
You will see this in the actual projected levels. The biggest thing you should notice is that we have a very wide bottom range this week. That's because of the huge amount of volatility, the math broadens the range in anticipation of further bigger moves.
You will also notice that the TPs are all in the 370s.
If you remember from the last few ideas I posted, 380 was the initial TP on a break of that monthly bearish threshold. But now it seems that that is a conservative estimate based on the data for next week.
Its crazy how fast things move.
Also, if you have been reading my ideas you knew that overall, I was personally targeting the 6 month low range on SPX. This was the basis of my more longer term swing. Here is our progress to that range so far:
I am a little frustrated about this because I did trim back my short position leading into last week as a risk management play, only because the probability for last week was fairly bullish seeming and I thought I could re-enter at a better price. It was a mistake obviously. But, its actually good because I have now added something to my swing rules. The new rule that I have added is: "Never modify a long term swing based on a short term assessment".
The issue being, of course, the longer term probabilities favored SPX hitting that 6 month low range. The price action supported this as well. But I modified that play on the basis of a hugely small TF assessment in comparison (the 1 week assessment).
Should have been the rule all along, but you know, you live and you learn. Even after 6 years I still make tons and tons of mistakes all the time.
I also did those 6 months levels on SPY, so here they are:
First target is at 368.
Overall analysis:
Anyway, reference target is in the chart. We broke back below that trendline with no fight at all. Perhaps we will re-test it, perhaps not. We'll have to see.
We have a slew of news coming this week which will make playing SPY more frustrating than normal. The preferred target on the probabilities is actually 378 followed by 374.
By the month end, I am expecting us to at least see 372. Reason being, the 3 month range on SPY ends this month and the first target is 372. Lots of confluence between the weeky/monthly and 6 month probabilities in this general area, a lot of math agreement, so I am thinking that that is probably where we are going to head to. Maybe not this upcoming week but next week there is no relief from the onslaught of news.
As of right now the immediate TP is 378. Breaking this will hopefully bring us to 374.
SPY is not on my playlist for day trading this week. I will be looking to add short around the reference target (purple line). But would really love for a re-test of that bearish trendline and rejection. So let's see if we can get that.
On my day trade list for this week is SOX and XOP actually. XOP is looking like it could be flourishing in this market catastrophe this week based on the cart, so should be pretty interesting.
As always, let me know your questions below and safe trades everyone!
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