Steversteves

SPY: Week of April 13

Steversteves Updated   
BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Hey everyone,

Going into next week, it seems like we my start with selling first.
Going into Monday probability is particularly bearish.
Based on the assessment of the week it actually seems like we can expect dramatic moves in both directions, so if we head down first, I would expect the CPI catalyst to move us back up. Vice versa if we start bullish. Though, based on the numbers, its looking like we're starting bearish.

The most bearish data is DIA (DOW).
The data from SPY indicates something I call a matching move, which means, equal move down, equal move up. Not bearish in the long term but bearish initially which will be matched by the bullish rebound (again, assuming we start bearish).

Larger picture remains bullish. I don't feel like I need to keep stressing that, but just in case, there is your reminder :p.

Initial TP for SPY is a retrace of 518. If we hold that, I would anticipate continuation of sideways behaviour around that level then up. If we break it, then look for the secondary and tertiary low targets in the chart above.

Max low would be the red box in the chart IMO and based on the data.


Those are my thoughts!
Safe trades!
Comment:
Probability puts SPY as rangey bearish tomorrow, along with QQQ.
But it likely will be stagnant because some of the mag 7 tech are coming up bullish.

For Tomorrow:
QQQ & SPY: Bearish
NVDA: Bullish
META: Mostly bearish
NFLX: Also bearish
SMCI: Semi bullish

Kind of mixed readings, but things have been this way for a while where everything is just in its own world, which probably explains why SPY has been really slow and grindy in both directions.


Safe trades everyone!
Comment:
I forgot to mention the bullish high prob on QQQ at 444.
Which means --- if we sell, parabolic upside will be the anticipation for CPI.
Comment:

SPY snagged 518 target on PPI results and held it as support.
Watch this area at open, as if we hold here we are going up.
Comment:
And up we went indeed!
We now have our matched move, equal up and equal down with hitting that 518 TP.

Since this all happened pre CPI its a wild card as to what to expect from the news release. I think projections are its coming in hot.

Outlook for tomorrow is looking really not great according to projections to be prepared for some wild beairshness and whipsaw mania!

Good luck everyone!
Comment:

Almost to the 3 month 99 :O,
Unexpected today, but I'll take it.
Comment:

Not loving that we fell back in the threshold range on the 3 month, but not too concerned with the GT still chillin up there.
I have been long for a very long time waiting for this moment so hopefully it comes sooner than later.

With a breakout of the threshold, and a hold of that level (529 ish) the actual target to look for is 541.26.
Nuts eh?
Even more nuts that people have been shorting this since 510 xD.

Be smart, safe trades and catch you later!
Comment:
Final update for the day, we may actually get my TP that I have been shilling for ages:

532 is PH2 (second high target) for tomorrow.
Home stretch!
And if we hold above 529 its 541 next.
Comment:
Didn't quite hit the 532, came very close though.

We fall back into the 3 month threshold (sub 529).
I would wait for a re-test and reject of 529, in which case a re-test of 519 is the expected outcome before moving back to snag 532.
Else, we break back out and just continue up to 532.
Based on the probabilities for tomorrow I think re-test reject/sell is the most likely outcome for now.

This is honestly the best case scenario because you can remain a dip buyer as long as that 532 target remains unhit!

Safe trades and not advice of course.
Comment:
We went up and rejected but then broke out at the end of the day.
Kind of really erratic past few days.

Either way up we go next week.

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