SPY bullish fake out incoming, recovery not until Mar/Apr 2024?

Could go up, could go down. Looking at it from a fear perspective, this is where my brain goes. SPY dipped below $410 today. I expect to see a nudge up to $411 or so on Monday as people lock in longer term/swing strategies/DCA for the $410 level, but an eventual slog to $390. I think a lot of people are holding cash and expecting to see $390 and will "buy the dip". This will give media some news that we're back to bullish, but disappointing Black Friday/retail sales along with ongoing fear of Israel conflict spreading will push things back to $375 being the floor. No recovery until around April 2024 as US tax refunds provide needed stimulus.

(My first published idea, woohoo!)

Comment:

tldr: RSI still has a bit to go to oversold territory, MACD downward slope, Fib $410 broken, US Congress leadership issues, fear of Israel conflict spreading, ongoing prolonged higher rates...lots of good reasons to think we're not out of the dip yet.