What is up my random internet bots, autists, and turds!
If you're following me, WHY?!?!
Just kidding, I have some good ideas sometimes (Check out my MIK chart that wasn't so spot on but would have gotten something like 200-400% depending on if you followed random internet man's random chart with random lines.
Anyway, lets keep it real - I am balls deep in a Scorpio Trade that reminds me of one of my first trades back in 2016 before I had any clue WTF I was doing. The fact that I'm here again 4-years later after much more experience and knowledge, leads me to believe that I HAVE NOT LEARNED A DAMN THING EXCEPT MY BALLS ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID.
I got in here because I believe in the super cycle. And I feel like that crazy guy who bet against the US Housing Market back in 2007 and looked like a huge autist until he eventually had everyone gagging on the almighty dollar. STNG is the US Housing Market circa 2006 and I am the man who keeps throwing his cash at the trade despite it not working in his favor. I've done so much due diligence on this one stock, I might even suffer from a deep bias. I acknowledge that here, but I also know more about this stock than my family history.
I started here with a light nibble when we saw a pullback in the low 30s in early 2020. I was WAY fucking early. This is why I ALWAYS buy in TRAUNCHES. MULTIPLE TRAUNCHES. Then COVID came and I got DECIMATED and unabashedly kept buying on the way down. I made some timely purchases, and some not timely purchases. Then we saw a nice reversal from the decimation based on a beautifully recited (almost too perfect) idea of floating storage and a record Q2 earnings. I saw my deep in the red, holy-shit-honey- the kids-can't-go-to-college, turn into a a small, but nice profit....
DID I sell? Of course not. Why would I sell five dollar bills when I could sell twenty dollar bills? GREEDY LITTLE PIG I was. I had CASH in my hand and I was like... LET IT RIDE BABY!! NO WHAMMY!!!
Well, we know how that went because I'm writing here as we just cracked $14 and now the entire fucking world is falling apart, covid is spreading like wildfire in forest, there is rioting, CHAZ (Veganzuela/Soymalia/ANTIFAstan), and honestly, no one knows abso-fucking-lutely anything anymore.
We are down 50% from 8-weeks ago, and I suspect some more downside is possible, but unlikely beyond a true double bottom. So, we sit in the 13/14 range, on decently strong support, with absolutely shit everything else. Everyone is calling for us to test 52 week lows, which is why I'm going against the grain and saying that's not going to happen.
The indexes have a chance to fall precipitously, covid numbers are at all-time highs in many of the most economically important states, and the economy is open for some kind of "new norm" business and probably will never shut down again...
The oil glut that apparently didn't exist, certainly exists.. It's going to take at least a year to unwind all of the extra oil we have out there; but STNG is not an oil tanker company- but instead ships refined products. Demand for refined products has suffered, and so has this stock. That being said, Q2 coming up and $4/share is no joke. The only joke is that money will sit on the balance sheet and not really be put to work until the future is more knowable...
And the market kinda hates that... But despite the unknown of the future demand of refined products; no matter what happens, we know Q3 is likely to be better than 2019 Q3
Fundamentally, there is nothing wrong here. I think we are actually being punished for not being a US company...We got pumped because of the internet pumped us on a beautifully articulated narrative. And now people are either panic selling, or psychology selling, or... there is manipulation to keep the price here to allow big accumulation by the big boys.
The float is so stupidly small, that the fact we are trading this low smells of something disgusting... Now, I'm not exactly sure how we get out of this, or even if we ever get out of this; but here is what I do know.
We are sitting with one of the lowest order books for ships, and STNG has one of the youngest fleets, and a very nice breakeven. I think the growing pains felt after the 2015 cycle are mostly over, and I think this company is going to have pulled in (in earnings) $4/share (ins just 1/2 the year) going into the slowest part of the year. I think COVID is not causing the USA to close down anymore and that COVID is not too bad for younger people - and deadly to older folk and ones with pre-existing conditions (JUST LIKE THE FLU, BRO!). Leaders know this, and also know they need the economy to not absolutely take a shit on itself because if so, everyone is getting voted out.
So here is how this plays out and I'm willing to bet I don't know a damn thing because I AM ABSOLUTELY NUMB TO THIS TRADE AND COMPLETELY BIASED.
The trend I saw on a separate chart is about 2-3month decline followed by a RAMP up above the 600dma (currently at low 23). We are likely going to bottom out here, go back to 16/17 and consolidate for a week or two, before we go up to $21/$22 by the time earnings are reported.
Some issues I see here is that a lot of autists who feel stuck in their trade are going to be selling all the way up to unload their bad choices - yet they'll still have to look at themselves in the mirror every night; or maybe they have to tuck their children into bed and tell them that mommy/daddy doesn't think college is right for them.
What they should do is HOLD THE FUCKING LINE because they love cash money, and we could break up to $25/$26 before we all sell and come back down for further consolidation around $14 again...
In all seriousness, I see us crossing the 600DMA (not shown on graph) and hitting the upper Fibonacci bands (shown on graph), which ironically is around the 600dma.
If you're following me, WHY?!?!
Just kidding, I have some good ideas sometimes (Check out my MIK chart that wasn't so spot on but would have gotten something like 200-400% depending on if you followed random internet man's random chart with random lines.
Anyway, lets keep it real - I am balls deep in a Scorpio Trade that reminds me of one of my first trades back in 2016 before I had any clue WTF I was doing. The fact that I'm here again 4-years later after much more experience and knowledge, leads me to believe that I HAVE NOT LEARNED A DAMN THING EXCEPT MY BALLS ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE SOLID.
I got in here because I believe in the super cycle. And I feel like that crazy guy who bet against the US Housing Market back in 2007 and looked like a huge autist until he eventually had everyone gagging on the almighty dollar. STNG is the US Housing Market circa 2006 and I am the man who keeps throwing his cash at the trade despite it not working in his favor. I've done so much due diligence on this one stock, I might even suffer from a deep bias. I acknowledge that here, but I also know more about this stock than my family history.
I started here with a light nibble when we saw a pullback in the low 30s in early 2020. I was WAY fucking early. This is why I ALWAYS buy in TRAUNCHES. MULTIPLE TRAUNCHES. Then COVID came and I got DECIMATED and unabashedly kept buying on the way down. I made some timely purchases, and some not timely purchases. Then we saw a nice reversal from the decimation based on a beautifully recited (almost too perfect) idea of floating storage and a record Q2 earnings. I saw my deep in the red, holy-shit-honey- the kids-can't-go-to-college, turn into a a small, but nice profit....
DID I sell? Of course not. Why would I sell five dollar bills when I could sell twenty dollar bills? GREEDY LITTLE PIG I was. I had CASH in my hand and I was like... LET IT RIDE BABY!! NO WHAMMY!!!
Well, we know how that went because I'm writing here as we just cracked $14 and now the entire fucking world is falling apart, covid is spreading like wildfire in forest, there is rioting, CHAZ (Veganzuela/Soymalia/ANTIFAstan), and honestly, no one knows abso-fucking-lutely anything anymore.
We are down 50% from 8-weeks ago, and I suspect some more downside is possible, but unlikely beyond a true double bottom. So, we sit in the 13/14 range, on decently strong support, with absolutely shit everything else. Everyone is calling for us to test 52 week lows, which is why I'm going against the grain and saying that's not going to happen.
The indexes have a chance to fall precipitously, covid numbers are at all-time highs in many of the most economically important states, and the economy is open for some kind of "new norm" business and probably will never shut down again...
The oil glut that apparently didn't exist, certainly exists.. It's going to take at least a year to unwind all of the extra oil we have out there; but STNG is not an oil tanker company- but instead ships refined products. Demand for refined products has suffered, and so has this stock. That being said, Q2 coming up and $4/share is no joke. The only joke is that money will sit on the balance sheet and not really be put to work until the future is more knowable...
And the market kinda hates that... But despite the unknown of the future demand of refined products; no matter what happens, we know Q3 is likely to be better than 2019 Q3
Fundamentally, there is nothing wrong here. I think we are actually being punished for not being a US company...We got pumped because of the internet pumped us on a beautifully articulated narrative. And now people are either panic selling, or psychology selling, or... there is manipulation to keep the price here to allow big accumulation by the big boys.
The float is so stupidly small, that the fact we are trading this low smells of something disgusting... Now, I'm not exactly sure how we get out of this, or even if we ever get out of this; but here is what I do know.
We are sitting with one of the lowest order books for ships, and STNG has one of the youngest fleets, and a very nice breakeven. I think the growing pains felt after the 2015 cycle are mostly over, and I think this company is going to have pulled in (in earnings) $4/share (ins just 1/2 the year) going into the slowest part of the year. I think COVID is not causing the USA to close down anymore and that COVID is not too bad for younger people - and deadly to older folk and ones with pre-existing conditions (JUST LIKE THE FLU, BRO!). Leaders know this, and also know they need the economy to not absolutely take a shit on itself because if so, everyone is getting voted out.
So here is how this plays out and I'm willing to bet I don't know a damn thing because I AM ABSOLUTELY NUMB TO THIS TRADE AND COMPLETELY BIASED.
The trend I saw on a separate chart is about 2-3month decline followed by a RAMP up above the 600dma (currently at low 23). We are likely going to bottom out here, go back to 16/17 and consolidate for a week or two, before we go up to $21/$22 by the time earnings are reported.
Some issues I see here is that a lot of autists who feel stuck in their trade are going to be selling all the way up to unload their bad choices - yet they'll still have to look at themselves in the mirror every night; or maybe they have to tuck their children into bed and tell them that mommy/daddy doesn't think college is right for them.
What they should do is HOLD THE FUCKING LINE because they love cash money, and we could break up to $25/$26 before we all sell and come back down for further consolidation around $14 again...
In all seriousness, I see us crossing the 600DMA (not shown on graph) and hitting the upper Fibonacci bands (shown on graph), which ironically is around the 600dma.
Comment:
Posted a new chart, different lines, same bullish idea and about 7% lower from when I did this chart, making the margin of safety on this trade that much more enticing (I also added another 1k shares around the $13 mark so.... yea