SamHuynh

xlm-usd patiently waiting

POLONIEX:STRUSDT   Stellar / Tether USD
This is discussion post only. You are welcome to post your thought
Don't forget to LIKE if you LIKE it :)


Stellar has proven to be the coin of LOVE
if you don't love stellar , you must be XRP 's fan and have ur money getting stuck now. Just kidding :)

Ok back to stellar , the coin has shown serious strong strength during this dumping time. However, stellar still hasn't escaped of its dangerous zone yet. We are still in a very big consolidation zone.
Right now im seeing a possible Head and Shoulder if stellar doesn't go up back again and pass 0.244$


what should we do now? do nothing and wait for stellar to decide where it will go

- a break above 0.244$ will signal bull strength, and we will test the downtrend line. This is the time to buy
- if we continue on going down, Head and Shoulder will form and we will dive deep and break the equilibrium zone. This is the time to wait for bottom . It should be around 0.14-0.15$.



Comment: 0.244$ not 0.234$ (previous top)
Comment: if you ask me where I want stellar to go , I want it to go down so we all can drag cheap stellar . LOL
Comment: with a big rejection shooting star candle on daily like that, next daily candle will show a clearer direction. Bear is in favor for this case
Comment: Nice. We touch the neckline now
Comment: another possible H & S on the right shoulder
Comment: if anyone plays long position now, remember to always to use stop loss. We are still in big downtrend. Right now it is just a period of recover
Comment: STR usually recover x2 amount of btc. However, this time it doesn't . It should ping us something, guys
we are going to see lot of people buying top on this recover and start crying again . Coins' movement still follow nicely its dumping behavior. Stay safe
Comment: good job to people who don't fomo to jump into this trap
Comment: I haven't updated XLM much . Why ? price is still in range and most coins are moving the same direction Up/Down (difference in force) during this time. So you can check my Eth post for more regularly update. There is no point to say the same thing in multiple posts :). My main trend right now is still bear.
Comment: closely observing stellar for a buy signal. History shows that 55 EMA(black line) on 12hr is a good indicator for a buy signal. If we pass it and HOLD at least 4hr, it is a buy signal for aggressive buyers. I say for aggressive buyers because above the 55 EMA we still have one more resistance which is the previous high (blue line). For conservative buyers, it will be buy signal when we pass the blue line.

Stop loss will be below 55 EMA

Comment: we are still in Range trading. Yeah, STR is one of the slowest coin at the movement now. It only shows that it is waiting to go up :).
Comment: definitely worth at playing when it breaks out of the range. Still waiting
Comment: this is why i always feel something strange with XLM. Why did other coins rally these past few weeks but not for XLM ? By just looking at XLM's chart cycles, it also hints that it is still too early for XLM to rally. Nevertheless, patience has paid off this time. Continue on waiting :)
Comment: i think i find out an interesting pattern for XLM. Around end of september will be a good buy opportunity if RSI on daily approaches Oversold area.
Comment: Buy target will be either 0.15$ or 0.11$ depending on market sentiment . Of course, i will love to buy xml at 0.11$ . LoL :)
Comment: good bounce from coins. It doesn't mean much yet but it shows a break down of the consolidation is FAILED for stellar. It means that bull still has strong chance. The hardest part of investing is waiting time :))
Comment: price has kept retesting the resistance line multiple times now with a possible Inverse head and shoulder setup to break out . Besides IHS, we also have ascending triangle. I am patiently waiting for the break out and a retest to support line before jumping in. Overall, thing starts looking good again
Comment:
Comment: the coin has taken off. Pump cycle starts without even dipping to Oversold area on daily first. We are at another strong resistance zone now. I think we will have 1 or 2 days cool off before flying again :)
Comment: xlm is in pullback mode again. This is a chance to buy dip. XLM will go up much more. I don't think we are at top yet :)
Comment: one of the strongest coins in the market right now. Stellar might go up sooner than Ripple
Comment: broken up the triangle but got pushed down. EMA shows good support. If we can break up the upper triangle again, we will go to new high. Take attention to that break
Comment: just because we are dropping doesn't mean we are in bear market.
Last week, xlm has risen 25%. Right now we are making a lower higher and if you check on the chart, we are actually in consolidation and traded within the range of Oct 18th candle.
A break below 0.2356 can trigger more drop to next demand level and it is a chance to buy DIP. It doesn't mean we will drop below 0.2356 :). We are in range trading now

stellar is in a strong bullish setup now. Don't let others fool you .


Comment: we have a bounce at 0.618 fib level.
There are 2 possible scene now:
1- either the retracement is over and we are going to move up to complete wave 5 of big wave 1 to participate the BIG break up on November. How can we know this one will happen? if we can see HH, HL set up , it is the first sign for it
2. we will have another dip to the next support(blue line) which will hold . I don't see any reason for not holding it if we drop there. If it happens, that's golden opportunity to buy cheap dip.

Overall, stellar is in strong bullish setup to be prepared for breaking up on November. We are in big triangle setup just like bitcoin
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: if we can break above this rectangular resistance zone, case 1 (above) will likely happen
if not, we will go for case 2
Comment: so we follow case 2.
Almost hit the strong demand zone now, it should hold, if not we are in trouble
Comment: xlm have retraced to support zone . This is a very strong one and the place where coin should start going up . In order to prove next bull rally, we need to break above the grey zone
Comment: I hope no one is panic to sell during the bear-trap. My view is still bullish.
Trade closed manually: new post
Hi SamHuynh, I like all your analysis but people always forget that most if not all Alt coins are not being use too much in the real world other than for trading and that is the reason why they always depend on the movement of BTC.

I mean, there are almost 2000 coins out there, they do almost the same, if the real word don't use them, they are going to disappear.

+1 Reply
SamHuynh TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, thanks. It will be easier to think all of them are pump/dump scheme because of low liquid
Reply
@SamHuynh, @TWIMARKETCAP In reference to "useless coins" both of you are right. As long as they exist, the ones with a low liquidity (market cap) are puppets of the game called P&D. But on the other hand we honestly have to evaluate them for the long-term like e.g. shares of a company being traded on the stock market. Here's a simplified example of how i look at this. Parts of or the whole example doesn't apply to all coins/tokens, there are exceptions (like BTC).

1. A company called DreamLand raises capital in an ICO for their token (=their product) called DreamToken.
2. Their product is in a state which ranges from "prototype" to "working product".
3. To run the company (staff etc.) and the ecosystem (infrastructure etc.) for their product, Dreamland has to pay bills (expenses).
4. The income of Dreamland realistically lies somewhere in the given range of 0 <= Income <= Expenses.
5. Trading DreamToken on crypto exchanges is irrelevant for the income of Dreamland.
6. DreamLand may or may not have managed to acquire additional capital which was invested since ICO by business angels etc., let's call it "x".
7. Dreamland may have acquired additional capital by liquidating DreamTokens from their own treasury, let's call it "y".
8. Dreamland theoretically can run it's business until expenses consumed their total capital.
9. Sum(expenses) > starting capital + x + y = DreamLand's dream ends in being bankrupt.

Questions: What's the price of an asset (the product) from a company who went bankrupt? Will the product exist beyond the lifespan of it's company?

I lately read in some news that 60% of all crypto currencies do not have a working product. It's just a matter of time when many, yet existing, crypto currencies will die. Until then, the ones with low liquidity, are targeted for P&D.

Enjoy your weekend!
Reply
SamHuynh EduardZimmermann
@EduardZimmermann, you can't use stock way's evaluation to crypto companies :)). I have been in crypto for over 2 years now so I am kind of familiar with it. It is all about good teams and Hype and whales :)
Reply
@SamHuynh, Thanks for your response and confirming that the price-building of cryptos and stocks obey to the same rules. (:

Good teams - A company's staff needs good staff too to run a proper and wealthy business
Whales - They buy stocks, commodities, forex etc too and invest far more money in asset classes beyond crypto
Hype - Do you remember the dotcom bubble? Stocks were overpriced, investors threw money behind every shitty company. Similar to "shitcoins", they either don't have a purpose and/or lack of an adoption which generates money to run the company behind. At one point they realized that many companies and their shares were over-valued/-priced.

And not to forget the basic factors of price-building: Supply, demand, trading volume, market capitalization.

Hype is the most dangerous component of price-building in cryptos, like for stocks of companies being part of the dotcom bubble. Hypes may not last forever. And one should make a difference between a coin/token and the blockchain-technology it's based on. The technology will survive most of the coins. But technology is not a factor when it comes to price-building. It's maybe a part of the hype.

The only difference to stocks is that cryptos might serve a (technical) purpose e.g. XRP is utilized as a vehicle for money transactions on the ripple network or Siacoin as a part of the "distributed dropbox".

And yes, cryptos can be called "special" but they aren't so special at the same time. Don't get me wrong, this isn't meant to be a personal offense, i'm just trying to be realistic wearing a "economic glasses" while sticking to reality. Sure, cryptos is an asset class where normal people can earn money with (including me). Easy to handle, easy to buy/sell. No need for a bank-agent. It gives us some kind of feeling of freedom. But it implies the highest risk of all asset classes.

Everyone can trade and earn money with crypto, that's fine and i wish everyone the best of luck for his trades. But if someone wins, someone else has to loose. It's a zero-sum game with only one winner: The bank (exchange). And one day this bubble will be past and hype will be gone. Not for the whole crypto market of course. But for "shitcoins". It's just a matter of time.

Sincerely
Reply
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