Europe (and NA and JP) have been ruling the world for 700 years, ever since Fibonacci brought back the number 0 and created finance.
Gunpowder helped too. Europe domination really went exponential once the stock market put people with money in relation with people with ideas, especially in UK.
Before that the arabs ruled the world for a few centuries, so MENA, before that the romans (and greeks a bit) so europe, before that the carthaginians I think? so mena, before that it alternated between Egypt, the Iraq region, Turkey, Iran (persians)...
India and China have always been big but actually so big they just do their thing. They're a planet by themselves I guess.
Mongols conquered the world so there is that too but otherwise the military + economic + standard of living + science domination has been alternating between europe and mena.
And Europe time is running out... (This includes NA). The end of an era is happening...
People trying to sound smart are saying china (and sometimes india too) will take over but I doubt it. They just do their thing, they always have.
I do not think it is highly probably. Ye sure their gdp probably keeps going up but their culture etc won't dominate. They could go into complete isolation (again).
Do they even need the outside world that much tbh xd
ps: poor hong kong. rip.
This is just an intro, there are plenty of reasons that show us what is happening (including inflation and all that scammy nonsense).
1 thing I really like is "biohistory" it's a new subject they have a couple of videos on youtube I recommend watching them.
North Africa has seen the arab revolutions about 10 years ago, so they have started leaving the middle ages (finally).
It takes time but... In the 70s the shah of Iran turned the country from middle ages into a regional superpower (some say he got too ambitious and this is why the US didn't help him and even helped the islamists take over).
So it can go pretty fast.
And it doesn't take that much! That region including non listed countries has a GDP of 3 trillion. Their economy (per capita) could triple, it's not crazy (didn't it already triple the past few decades?) their population triples, and bam in 30 years you got a GDP of 27 Trillion, while NA EU JP stagnate or even decline.
The MENA region on their side also has oil, natgas, fertilizers, and idk what else, that are only going to go up in value.
This can help support 500 years of world domination. Europe dominated the world for less reasons than this.
Anyway, the gap between developped world and the rest (except sub saharan africa, they are rekt) will tighten I can guarentee this.
The US have just declared sending troops to Saudi Arabia to deal with Iran...
With the coming UBER depression, likes of which you have never seen, the US won't be able to keep the region tamed.
Pay attention to this:
"During the two decades before 1975 per capita income in Iran grew faster than in Turkey and kept pace with Korea. By 1975 the level of per capita GDP in Iran was more than double those attended in Korea and Turkey. However, since the late 1970s income per head in Iran has witnessed a rapid decline. . . By 1990, GDP per capita in Iran had declined by half, almost down to the levels prevalent in the early 1960s and falling behind Turkey and Korea."
Double digit growth.
The 15 years before 1975 were called the "white revolution" led by Iran shah, and 1978/1979 (when the decline started) was when the shah had to quit the country and the religious "supreme leaders" took over.
This is very long term (several decades), but when the "developped world" sees their greatest depression in history with nothing left to slow it down (rates at zero or less, inflation high already, debt insane already, QE pushed to the max, etc)... developped world economies are going to be the safest ones and the ones to recover faster.
Let me repeat, when the west depression begins, investing in a middle east country with plenty of issues and potential wars will be MUCh safer than investing in the developped world.
Great time to start looking at this region. Warren Buffet and John Templeton did not have access to double digit growth, but maybe we will.
The ones that have the vision to look at the right place while every one else is focussed on the previous opportunities. OF THE PAST.
Don't be sad because it is over. Smile because it is beginning :)
Gunpowder helped too. Europe domination really went exponential once the stock market put people with money in relation with people with ideas, especially in UK.
Before that the arabs ruled the world for a few centuries, so MENA, before that the romans (and greeks a bit) so europe, before that the carthaginians I think? so mena, before that it alternated between Egypt, the Iraq region, Turkey, Iran (persians)...
India and China have always been big but actually so big they just do their thing. They're a planet by themselves I guess.
Mongols conquered the world so there is that too but otherwise the military + economic + standard of living + science domination has been alternating between europe and mena.
And Europe time is running out... (This includes NA). The end of an era is happening...
People trying to sound smart are saying china (and sometimes india too) will take over but I doubt it. They just do their thing, they always have.
I do not think it is highly probably. Ye sure their gdp probably keeps going up but their culture etc won't dominate. They could go into complete isolation (again).
Do they even need the outside world that much tbh xd
ps: poor hong kong. rip.
This is just an intro, there are plenty of reasons that show us what is happening (including inflation and all that scammy nonsense).
1 thing I really like is "biohistory" it's a new subject they have a couple of videos on youtube I recommend watching them.
North Africa has seen the arab revolutions about 10 years ago, so they have started leaving the middle ages (finally).
It takes time but... In the 70s the shah of Iran turned the country from middle ages into a regional superpower (some say he got too ambitious and this is why the US didn't help him and even helped the islamists take over).
So it can go pretty fast.
And it doesn't take that much! That region including non listed countries has a GDP of 3 trillion. Their economy (per capita) could triple, it's not crazy (didn't it already triple the past few decades?) their population triples, and bam in 30 years you got a GDP of 27 Trillion, while NA EU JP stagnate or even decline.
The MENA region on their side also has oil, natgas, fertilizers, and idk what else, that are only going to go up in value.
This can help support 500 years of world domination. Europe dominated the world for less reasons than this.
Anyway, the gap between developped world and the rest (except sub saharan africa, they are rekt) will tighten I can guarentee this.
The US have just declared sending troops to Saudi Arabia to deal with Iran...
With the coming UBER depression, likes of which you have never seen, the US won't be able to keep the region tamed.
Pay attention to this:
"During the two decades before 1975 per capita income in Iran grew faster than in Turkey and kept pace with Korea. By 1975 the level of per capita GDP in Iran was more than double those attended in Korea and Turkey. However, since the late 1970s income per head in Iran has witnessed a rapid decline. . . By 1990, GDP per capita in Iran had declined by half, almost down to the levels prevalent in the early 1960s and falling behind Turkey and Korea."
Double digit growth.
The 15 years before 1975 were called the "white revolution" led by Iran shah, and 1978/1979 (when the decline started) was when the shah had to quit the country and the religious "supreme leaders" took over.
This is very long term (several decades), but when the "developped world" sees their greatest depression in history with nothing left to slow it down (rates at zero or less, inflation high already, debt insane already, QE pushed to the max, etc)... developped world economies are going to be the safest ones and the ones to recover faster.
Let me repeat, when the west depression begins, investing in a middle east country with plenty of issues and potential wars will be MUCh safer than investing in the developped world.
Great time to start looking at this region. Warren Buffet and John Templeton did not have access to double digit growth, but maybe we will.
The ones that have the vision to look at the right place while every one else is focussed on the previous opportunities. OF THE PAST.
Don't be sad because it is over. Smile because it is beginning :)
Comment:
There are a couple of ETFs, some of which are on tv.
They all give their own vision. This one is heavy on certain countries and I think the major part of the ticker is made of financials.
Currencies are really not interesting:
That inflation:
It would be great to one day have a more stable region, west europe did it, east europe did it (I mean the yugoslavia region), they can do it. It took a war every time...
It would be great to have something like an iran alliance, an arab alliance, and a north african alliance, with each their own indice, and own currency, which would be big enough for alot of people to be interested in and would make great speculative tools to add to the list.
Investors would allow businesses to grow, and there is a very big potential.
Oil is much cheaper too... If this is still around by then.
Oil reliant economies of the west would suffer of course, but they've been warned to find other energy sources for 100 years so they can't complain.
I really wish indices would stop all being so correlated. That would really be great sigh.
It's so dumb. "Let's all do modern portfolio theory" ==> As a result, since every one is so bad at this and the system is ridiculous, everything just ends up correlated (stocks & indices).
I already have plenty of currency (but alot are a little correlated) 1 indice (since all correlated) and 4 commodities, but it would be great to get more.
I usually have about 3 uncorrelated positions at any given time. 5+ would be better.
If this region "makes it" it will be in a super long time.
In the relatively short term the only interesting move would be to invest there at the bottom of a depression because they should recover faster.
Having to be patient isn't fun.
They all give their own vision. This one is heavy on certain countries and I think the major part of the ticker is made of financials.
Currencies are really not interesting:
It would be great to one day have a more stable region, west europe did it, east europe did it (I mean the yugoslavia region), they can do it. It took a war every time...
It would be great to have something like an iran alliance, an arab alliance, and a north african alliance, with each their own indice, and own currency, which would be big enough for alot of people to be interested in and would make great speculative tools to add to the list.
Investors would allow businesses to grow, and there is a very big potential.
Oil is much cheaper too... If this is still around by then.
Oil reliant economies of the west would suffer of course, but they've been warned to find other energy sources for 100 years so they can't complain.
I really wish indices would stop all being so correlated. That would really be great sigh.
It's so dumb. "Let's all do modern portfolio theory" ==> As a result, since every one is so bad at this and the system is ridiculous, everything just ends up correlated (stocks & indices).
I already have plenty of currency (but alot are a little correlated) 1 indice (since all correlated) and 4 commodities, but it would be great to get more.
I usually have about 3 uncorrelated positions at any given time. 5+ would be better.
If this region "makes it" it will be in a super long time.
In the relatively short term the only interesting move would be to invest there at the bottom of a depression because they should recover faster.
Having to be patient isn't fun.
Comment:
In the 1973-1974 Oil crisis (that lasted 6 months) when the middle east cut off the oil supply to nations supporting israel in the Yom Kippur War (including the US) barrel prices went from $3 to $12 and it was worse in the USA.
Prices at the pump in the US nearly instantly quadrupled :D
The US economy could not stomach something like this for more than a few months.
If it happened today they could not stomach for a few days lmao.
Country would instantly collapse.
Maybe war is coming, but anyway I checked something very interesting.
The young are getting qualified, it went so fast that they do not have high demanding jobs, which is a waste, so basically what is missing is investors and business builders. Business & finance in other words.
There are tens of millions qualified students every year I think? It's alot anyway.
And there would need to be 150 million new jobs by 2020 for all of those.
Something like that, well anyway it's enormous.
They know how to use tech etc.
All that is needed is a little spark, businessmen and investors, or at least investors and some little help/advice perhaps, and all of these qualified youngs would generate so much economy.
This is not 1750 anymore. They are all connected to the rest of the world, literate, and not really "behind". So it can go really very fast.
This could be a gigantic bubble... :rubbing_hands:
Prices at the pump in the US nearly instantly quadrupled :D
The US economy could not stomach something like this for more than a few months.
If it happened today they could not stomach for a few days lmao.
Country would instantly collapse.
Maybe war is coming, but anyway I checked something very interesting.
The young are getting qualified, it went so fast that they do not have high demanding jobs, which is a waste, so basically what is missing is investors and business builders. Business & finance in other words.
There are tens of millions qualified students every year I think? It's alot anyway.
And there would need to be 150 million new jobs by 2020 for all of those.
Something like that, well anyway it's enormous.
They know how to use tech etc.
All that is needed is a little spark, businessmen and investors, or at least investors and some little help/advice perhaps, and all of these qualified youngs would generate so much economy.
This is not 1750 anymore. They are all connected to the rest of the world, literate, and not really "behind". So it can go really very fast.
This could be a gigantic bubble... :rubbing_hands:
==> USA: "WO watch out, we know you are behind this we are sending troups now only 5 days after the events, getting ready to invade Iran if necessary"
Russia invades Ukraine and conquers a part of the country
==> USA: "Are you involved some friends asked me to ask you. Ok sorry sir, you might pursue your invasion, no problem, continue and sorry for bothering you". 2 years later "Oh you also are invading the rest of the country? With proof there are russian troups in, and you have amassed a large part of your army at the border. If you continue we might be forced to ask you nicely to stop. And here are a few small irrelevant sanctions."
Maybe Iran-SaudiArabia war finally pops and lets go WW3. And they come out as a union like the EU long after, after the saudi monarchy falls and the iran cultists too.
When I look at the middle east they look more modern than the EU it's crazy, well technically they are but... they seem like bigger economies already, because of all the big towers which the EU hasn't or very little of those.
In my GDP list I didn't put Turkey, even thought they are the biggest with about 900 Billion, they are a developped country, 19th gdp nominal and 13th ppp, 80 million people, but idk they're on the edge lets say, they almost joined eu, maybe they will almost, or entirely, join a mena union if that happens.
Turkey is failing, debt crisis, inflation, and all that stuff, that is waiting for NA & EU very soon.
Maybe without the USA creating failed states and terrorists in the region they can finally bloom, OR finally have their war, and THEN bloom.
For the shorter term it appears evident that emerging markets (that don't have ridiculous monetary policies) will recover much more easilly from a depression, and will be a better bet than NA EU JP. Probably alot of people are waiting for the crash of the developped world to invest cheap, but they will probably be too early, and it will take so long to recover...
There is going to be a couple of years to prepare, and also we will watch how the situation evolves meanwhile of course.
I'll make more ideas about the region, the important charts, etc.
Can't find Iran Tedpix on trading view that's a shame. Actually they have very few indices from emerging markets, or stocks.
Maybe they're there but hidden or something...
Other wise there is bloomberg terminal maybe...
And tv has all the small crypto alts. Every magic internet bean is here...
Iran is in a bubble right now (not saying it can't keep going up).
Would have been interesting to screenshot.
Algeria doesn't even have a real stock market. The only company listed on the stock market is the stock market company -.-
When they stop trolling and quit middle ages double digit growth easy.
Probably a bubble with everyone buying as soon as the first companies get listed.
Maybe the mena region needs a global indice, or a few indices for allies.
I should create one one day!