First of all, what a great week this was! We have worked hard to chart and track the moves, ever since the $APHA reverse merger was announced, and anticipated upside. It was phenomenal, the way the waves just kept extending. It was surprisingly easy as well. Any trading mistake we made, was forgiven and rewarded with a higher high, all the way until we saw that hourly reversal candle. Let us remember the above for the next time we are in an explosive move, so that we can remind ourselves with more confidence, that it is time to lock in profits.
I have been trying my best to keep up with the counts of the sub waves of this spike. The day before it plunged, I noticed that I had ran out of labels to keep marking any potential further extensions. I am wondering if this is a coincidence, and made a note for future reference.
Where are we now?
It is hard to keep track of several degrees all at once, but I have made a careful assessment of intermediate degree and its subdivisions. Intermediate 1, I have aligned with the broader industry, and intermediate 2, I have more or less assumed, based on where it bottomed. The chart here, shows intermediate 3 and its subdivisions. Notably, intermediate 3 hasn't topped yet.
What is that spike?
The spike is clearly a third wave, but its subdivisions tell me that the short squeeze happened during subminuette 5 of minuette 5 of minute 3. This suggests that we are currently looking at minute 4, and that minor 3 and intermediate 3 are not yet done. That makes sense to me, if you zoom out even further. This is a recovery rally, and ultimately, all strong LP's should make a higher high this year (or next). Also $TLRY.
What is next?
First, lets have a look at the daily chart:
We have a reversal candle at the top, a steep drop, and we closed the week with another reversal candle. If we look at the 4 hour chart, you see that the circled setups are each others inverse:
To me, these two charts signal a potential bottom and we should be looking for a bounce. How much of a bounce depends on next week's (bull) volume.
What to expect next week?
We should expect a minute wave 4. The first minute correction, minute 2, was a flat. The Guideline of Alternation says we'll get anything but a flat this time. We can choose between a zigzag, a triangle, a double three or a triple three.
We've just completed a zigzag down, so theoretically, she could break out again, right here. But considering the volume, I anticipate buyers to rotate to another industry, and leaving cannabis alone for 3 to 6 weeks. We need to keep an eye on signs of strength, and take it one day at a time. Studying spikes during a bull market, there is usually a period of sideways ranging, before choosing direction.
Just a thought
Usually, when assets spike like this, investors need time to digest the move. Indeed we could make another spike next week, but it wouldn't be reasonable not to assume that a base will form first, before continuing on a more sustainable rally upward. There is a reason to assume that most investors are still terrified because of what happened in 2018. That was a bear market. We need to learn now, that bull markets see larger moves upward, and smaller moves down. The larger trend is up, back then, the larger trend was down. $TLRY has a small float, and with $APHA, they are a world wide play with an entry into the US, with Simon's drinks play. Make no mistake. There is a lot of word that drinks are the way to go. Study Sweetwater. These guys are THE play, but the merger has to complete. If it does, then there is no telling where Primary wave 3 will end. That is the intra year wave we are riding.
Send me some coin?
Did you guys know that Tradingview has its own currency now?
I've just used another 2 hours to make this post. How many of my posts have you enjoyed? Have you earned from my posts? Would you like me to continue posting? How many hours do I put in sharing my thoughts? Do I have to, for me? Think about it.
These are designed for you to reward content creators for their efforts. If you donate me some, I can use that coin on my plan or realtime data, and it is a great way for you to give something bank. I mean back. Send me $1 worth, and you'll make my day :-)
I have been trying my best to keep up with the counts of the sub waves of this spike. The day before it plunged, I noticed that I had ran out of labels to keep marking any potential further extensions. I am wondering if this is a coincidence, and made a note for future reference.
Where are we now?
It is hard to keep track of several degrees all at once, but I have made a careful assessment of intermediate degree and its subdivisions. Intermediate 1, I have aligned with the broader industry, and intermediate 2, I have more or less assumed, based on where it bottomed. The chart here, shows intermediate 3 and its subdivisions. Notably, intermediate 3 hasn't topped yet.
What is that spike?
The spike is clearly a third wave, but its subdivisions tell me that the short squeeze happened during subminuette 5 of minuette 5 of minute 3. This suggests that we are currently looking at minute 4, and that minor 3 and intermediate 3 are not yet done. That makes sense to me, if you zoom out even further. This is a recovery rally, and ultimately, all strong LP's should make a higher high this year (or next). Also $TLRY.
What is next?
First, lets have a look at the daily chart:
We have a reversal candle at the top, a steep drop, and we closed the week with another reversal candle. If we look at the 4 hour chart, you see that the circled setups are each others inverse:
To me, these two charts signal a potential bottom and we should be looking for a bounce. How much of a bounce depends on next week's (bull) volume.
What to expect next week?
We should expect a minute wave 4. The first minute correction, minute 2, was a flat. The Guideline of Alternation says we'll get anything but a flat this time. We can choose between a zigzag, a triangle, a double three or a triple three.
We've just completed a zigzag down, so theoretically, she could break out again, right here. But considering the volume, I anticipate buyers to rotate to another industry, and leaving cannabis alone for 3 to 6 weeks. We need to keep an eye on signs of strength, and take it one day at a time. Studying spikes during a bull market, there is usually a period of sideways ranging, before choosing direction.
Just a thought
Usually, when assets spike like this, investors need time to digest the move. Indeed we could make another spike next week, but it wouldn't be reasonable not to assume that a base will form first, before continuing on a more sustainable rally upward. There is a reason to assume that most investors are still terrified because of what happened in 2018. That was a bear market. We need to learn now, that bull markets see larger moves upward, and smaller moves down. The larger trend is up, back then, the larger trend was down. $TLRY has a small float, and with $APHA, they are a world wide play with an entry into the US, with Simon's drinks play. Make no mistake. There is a lot of word that drinks are the way to go. Study Sweetwater. These guys are THE play, but the merger has to complete. If it does, then there is no telling where Primary wave 3 will end. That is the intra year wave we are riding.
Send me some coin?
Did you guys know that Tradingview has its own currency now?
I've just used another 2 hours to make this post. How many of my posts have you enjoyed? Have you earned from my posts? Would you like me to continue posting? How many hours do I put in sharing my thoughts? Do I have to, for me? Think about it.
These are designed for you to reward content creators for their efforts. If you donate me some, I can use that coin on my plan or realtime data, and it is a great way for you to give something bank. I mean back. Send me $1 worth, and you'll make my day :-)
🅱🄰🆁🅺🆆🄾🆁🆃🅷