claydoctor

Correlations: SPY, CL1!, and TLT

AMEX:TLT   None
0
In 2008 Oil had three stops, legs, on to its 4th eventual bottom. Note the price action relationship to WTI, SPY , and 20 year bond. We are right at the third stop or bump in WTI now. Do we bounce or head lower, and the sound you hear are the backs breaking of any oil companies with any debt, fracking ending (and any other rigging operation that has a break even cost to pump of 55 or higher, and the silence of oil rigs shutting down, much to the delight of the Saudis (and the Obama administration, the enviromentalists, anyone against fracking, and those against the Keystone pipeline). If Europe does not gets its act together and commit to a form of QE , what is there to support this market yet again? We've had a couple of bumps in Bonds lately breaking a string of straight trend line quiet bull action, volatility is back, just like in 2008 (vertical thin black line). Do a close up view of this and you will see it (too hard to see here). And bonds spiked as we headed to the real WTI bottom. Will we do it again, and hear the knees shaking of all the bulls that pounced on this energy sector level thinking this was the bottom of OIL and those tantiliizing OIL stocks at "these levels", careful of the temptation, lets see if this bounce has support through the first 2 weeks of January, where the year sets up, and perhaps see panic selling from those who went long OIL too early. Imagine what that would do to TLT , oh wait, yeh that's right... same thing happened in 2008. Might take a small leveraged position TLT long here very soon, 1st week of January, lets watch closely. I could be off my rocker here, but the chart says otherwise. MACD for TLT is bullish and wants another spike, maybe without seeing another dip, its at its trend line now. I DO NOT TRUST THIS SANTA CLAUS RALLY AT ALL. Way too many factors in play here to call this at this time, low volumes too, could play or not, these are just my observations.