FractalTrader
Short

More downside for TLT after a bounce

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
53 0 0
I recently posted about expected downside for the bond market, based on technicals.


As long as we're looking at bonds, why not look at treasuries.

The technicals for TLT             are in a little more of a "grey area" technically, than corporate bonds. The two scenarios I can see for the wave pattern have very different outcomes. Scenario 1 points to lower prices after small counter-trend rallies, and a break of the rising channel going back to December of 2013. Scenario 2 calls for new highs from here, and a general resumption of the rising channel .

My bias leans toward scenario 1 for 2 reasons.

1. Prices have yet to test the lower end of a price channel containing the ABC/WXY corrective pattern from the January highs. As I pointed out in the linked post about bounds, corrective patterns have a tendency to channel.
2. In a WXY pattern, W and Y will tend toward equality, and so far the Y-Wave has fallen short of the price projection at 117.43.

In summary, many traders and investors are looking for a major bear market here, which would drive up the price of treasuries as investors seek safety. I've been "cautiously" taking the other side of that view, with a view of stocks needing a healthy correction.

Treasuries may bounce a bit here, as uncertainties develop around some stock market selling, but I expect that bounce to be a counter-trend rally, rather than a continued bull market in treasuries.
English
English (UK)
English (IN)
Deutsch
Français
Español
Italiano
Polski
Türkçe
Русский
Português
Bahasa Indonesia
Bahasa Melayu
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
日本語
한국어
简体
台灣
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out