TLT Potential Inverse H&S

BATS:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT exhibiting a potential inverse H&S bottoming formation. Amazing how many contrary charts formation are out there, however I put more weight in directional movement based on bonds rather than equities.

If blue trend line is broken, this setup will be null and void. If breakout above black neckline, this must hold as support (neckline is a little hairy, so target price projection is slightly tough to forecast).

Considering RSI in the indexes is waning, this helps the bullish case for bond prices. Next week will be determination time.


Following through so far. Not sure it will reach the target in the time frame set, but price is moving higher as equities take a dive.

Equities as of now still showing weakness and rejection of many price targets on the downside. RSI is weak in the indexes, while the only positive divergence is in money flow. A bounce is obvious and likely soon, especially with Thanksgiving holiday and seasonal trends. Need some positive divergences to show price firming up before entering the bounce trade.
Needs to get up and over the black trend line (what would be neckline) for this to stay valid. If equities get hit as I'm currently anticipating, this should pan out. However, if not, re-evaluate quickly and react accordingly. Don't let bias get in the way and force a trade that isn't there. Move on if necessary.
Sorry about the top being cut off... not sure why. There is a target price at about 131.50 with the green circle being the projected time frame for reaching it.