$TLT - The Long Bond is Anyone's Guess

BATS:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
200 5 0
A Head & Shoulder's Top formation in the daily chart of TLT             is clearly visible, but is it in fact a bearish pattern? We do not know yet. The declining resistance trend line drawn from the peak to the most recent high combined in reference to the lower support line touched this past week could be hinting to a larger bull flag consolidation. Mixed patterns are common in any instrument where the implication of a major move one direction or the other is likely to have an equal impact elsewhere in the markets.

The Head & Shoulders Top formation could have been triggered in the past week. Price appears to want to re-test the breakdown area around $106 (the $102 handle could be viewed as a secondary neckline) to see if previous support now resistance can be regained. The grey shaded area identifies a resistance "purgatory" price will need to get through if a target >$110 is in the cards near-term. Should price reject the 106 handle neckline and move through potential the secondary neckline at $102, the measured move target around $80 will be what most traders are expecting... eventually. However, $92 - $97 support should create a pause/bounce at a minimum on the way to obtaining the longer term objective.

For now, 106 and 102 are the handles to keep an eye on... Good luck out there!
So far so good - let's see if it breaks the lower trend line or holds steady vs. the dime.
I feel TNX's target has reached and would retrace in short term, which is bullish of TLT/TMF in next month or two.
Thanks Knock. I actually have a still higher yield target for .TNX but Friday's bounce was strong. We shall (wait...) and see!
knock DuncanParker
I also just published a IEF chart to support your TLT chart here, as the their paces are pretty much the same. My speculation is that TNX is rejected at the resistance and pulls back to form a bigger inverse right shoulder on weekly chart, and next up leg may eventually break the resistance and shoot for some high target (maybe even previous all time high??) in next couple of years. What I hope to learn more is fundamentally what would cause yield rally?
Hey Knock - sorry just saw your comment. Yield rally is usually caused directly by Fed policy. This time around we don't know if it's Fed policy or fear that's driving yields. I agree there could be a massive rise in TNX at some point in the near future. Good luck!
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