More pain ahead for bond traders is a risk, but long-term bull..

Sep 6, 2023

At the time of writing it is crucial for buyers to hold the 5.5 level, if not, I see a possibility for the price to move inside 4.2-5,2 range and consolidate there. I don't think it will be a long process in terms of time.

Fundamentally though I have a bullish view and started to slowly accumulate position with an investment time horizon at least 1 year I foresee, maybe more. If it happens faster than in the near future the interest rates in the US will be cut dramatically, thus causing some serious black swan event.

Time will tell, on the upside I see around 20-30 level as a possible long-term target, but bond bulls might definitely get wrecked before reaching a final bottom in price. Practically speaking FED hawkish cycle is in the topping process, thus yields, especially on long end can increase to meet the fed fund rate (which is at the time of writing is at 5,5%) causing the bond price to fall.

Sep 20, 2023

Trade active

This week will be crucial especially after today FED speech and interest rate decision, which is priced in to remain unchanged. Price action will tell. I am following my risk management path, which is to accumulate at least 42% of planned 100%, which represents around 60% of total portfolio maximum exposure.

Sep 29, 2023

Trade active

Increasing my position by 6,25% today at market open, thus my total exposure will be 30% of total portfolio or 50% of total position.

Reason: Positive price action and close of the yesterday + big volumes stepping in.