4/27/24 - $tnet - a buy but complicated - vrockstar

4/27/24 - outsized move for the stock on eps -17% seems too much. however, growth subdued for next 2 yrs doesn't help. even 8% implied fcf yield while juicy and sticky-ish base... is not exactly what the mkt wants to pay for this -ve growth i'm sensing - it's probably closer to 10% for this type of scale + net cash + sub 5x EV/revenue multiple names. downside here could defn be $100 level and mkt beta skewed downsize here on a nasdaq/ related B2B misses puke... toward mid to low 90s where this becomes a more obvious buy. dip bought this into the close, have been trading it all day... am either flat or only marginally down maybe 50 bps on the position. unfortunately not a very rentable stock either so even going out the curve to say monetize jan '25 C's doesn't pay a ton... and it's not a super liquid chain either. i'll probably look to sell this for a meager profit if we open green on monday potentially clearing out of the whole position perhaps i'll float 1/3 of it for a second day move if goes green. if we see a red open i might just cut and set my "look again" at closer to $100 where we have a gap fill from aug '23 at ~$93