U.S. Treasury yields have dominated sentiment since early 2022. Today we’ll return to the important chart of the key 10-year note.

This chart uses two-week candles to show the bigger picture. The yellow line illustrates the upward trend.

Four levels are also highlighted.

First is the October 2018 peak of 3.248. TNX held that level in April 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. An old high became a new low, which signaled a potential reversal.

Second is the June 2008 high of 4.324 -- a few months before the worst of the subprime collapse. TNX peaked there in October 2022 and fell under that level as the S&P 500 climbed last year. But now it’s back above it.

Two more long-term levels could be in play next. The June 2007 high of 5.316 was the peak before the Global Financial Crisis. It could be the next logical stopping point for the current move.

Above that, 6.823 was the zenith from early in the century.

Next, one might consider that the decline in yields since the early 1980s was a very long-term trend. That could mean its upside reversal will last longer than some might hope.

The macro backdrop and fundamentals in the Treasury market could also be important. Monday’s retail sales report could suggest the economy is strong enough to forgo rate cuts. Last week also saw poor demand for a 10-year Treasury auction, a wider than expected fiscal deficit and higher-than-expected CPI.

Given these conditions, nerves may remain on edge into key events like gross domestic product on April 25, PCE on April 26 and the next Federal Reserve decision on May 1.

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