Santa Christmas rally?

There is a lot I mean a lot of chatter of an expected December Christmas rally into the new-year; sell in the first quarter for some easy returns. Over the years I’ve observed this phenomenon with Ethereum, it is intriguing. However I think being complacent is asking for trouble so I deicded to ‘look left’ for some evidence of an up and coming rally.

The orange bars in the above 10-day chart represent ‘mid-December’ of the last 6 years. Here’s what I’ve found:

1) Every 2nd year of a post December rally was followed with a ‘non event’ with at least a -30 to -40% market correction. I’ve marked them as ‘false’.

2) Post December rallies were at least 70% in uptrend.

3) The months leading to a post December rally appear insignificant. If price action leads into December in a uptrend or downtrend, it may result in a post December rally. There’s very little history available to say for certain.

4) There’s never been a dull start to the year! No matter if it is up or down the moves have always been significant.

Any other observations? Please comment below!

Comment:

A new 10-day candle and continued confusion. Fear & Greed is high pointing to a correction, that would make sense with the evening star candle and a -20% correction.

The morning star candle closed higher (green) and we continue to be on RSI support.
Two lines of thought:

1) Evening star, correction is in the post.

2) We're about to see something we've not see before in terms of volume coming into the market.

Either way we'll know by December 16th when the new 10-day candle is printed.

Comment:

According to the 10-day chart the market just broke through the previous market high set in early 2018. Very exciting.

Comment:

I look at this chart and think to myself - wow - this market is overbought. Must remind ourselves however by 'this market' we mean only two cryptos, Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Comment:

We could have a 40% correction and still be in an uptrend.

Comment:

DOJI candle just printed on the 2-day chart as Stochastic RSI sits under 20. There's a good probability we're about to see the market blast over the $1 trillion mark.