3/3 times this was a good time to buy crypto. Is now the 4th...?
Playing around with statistics and probabilities... Some people seem to believe in RSI and stoch RSI indicators (overbought / oversold markets). Especially when combined with powerful price action such as resistance and support levels. Such confluences seem popular statistical signals to buy or sell the market or at least start a DCA process.
Let's check what it suggests this time - and remember "past performance does not guarantee future results". ;-)
The total crypro market cap seems to have retested a significant level: 2018 Jan all-time market top. That level was broken through only several months later and the price never came back down to retest this level. Until the recent past few weeks. It is said that new All-TIme-Highs need validation via retesting previous All-Time-High levels before heading even higher. Now this has happened and the price has held above this level - so far. We are also below another important historical support (now turned into potential resistance). So the break of the down-trend has not yet been confirmed by price action.
However, statistics-wise this was a good time in the past to invest in crypto and hold it for new ATHs. 3/3 times such a low RSI and Stochastic RSI level confluence has proven a good time to buy crypto (mainly BTC of course, not the exotic meme coins that are nowhere to be seen today). What do I consider low? Both the weekly RSI and weekly Stoch RSI moving below the lower extreme threshold (their respective colored areas) at the same time. On a closer look, the weekly RSI + Stoch RSI confluence also worked when the RSI value was between 27-37 while the Stoch RSI was at extreme low levels.
So I bought some strong crypto now and will see the results in a few months. I never use up all my free capital, neither should you. Alwayss keep some gunpowder dry just in case history invents new statistics. ;-)
Let's check what it suggests this time - and remember "past performance does not guarantee future results". ;-)
The total crypro market cap seems to have retested a significant level: 2018 Jan all-time market top. That level was broken through only several months later and the price never came back down to retest this level. Until the recent past few weeks. It is said that new All-TIme-Highs need validation via retesting previous All-Time-High levels before heading even higher. Now this has happened and the price has held above this level - so far. We are also below another important historical support (now turned into potential resistance). So the break of the down-trend has not yet been confirmed by price action.
However, statistics-wise this was a good time in the past to invest in crypto and hold it for new ATHs. 3/3 times such a low RSI and Stochastic RSI level confluence has proven a good time to buy crypto (mainly BTC of course, not the exotic meme coins that are nowhere to be seen today). What do I consider low? Both the weekly RSI and weekly Stoch RSI moving below the lower extreme threshold (their respective colored areas) at the same time. On a closer look, the weekly RSI + Stoch RSI confluence also worked when the RSI value was between 27-37 while the Stoch RSI was at extreme low levels.
So I bought some strong crypto now and will see the results in a few months. I never use up all my free capital, neither should you. Alwayss keep some gunpowder dry just in case history invents new statistics. ;-)