Total - Crypto Critical Resistance Level
There are times in markets when you have to take a 30000 foot view of the market. We will be revisiting the crypto market and analyzing what might happen. Let’s have a look at the TOTAL:
So here we have the total market cap on the 3 day chart with a 21 SMA. On the bottom, we have the % above/below SMA oscillator on the same period. They look the same right? Well there are subtle differences! Let’s start back at “Volmageddon”. Here we have a classic fakeout. This fakeout resulted in one of the most epic down moves we have ever seen. This just goes to show you how important the particulars become at these points in the charts. Notice that the the price and the %SMA oscillator are acting the same at this time.
The important subtle difference comes around the start of July. The %SMA oscillator tests and breaks the downward sloping resistance before the price by one candle! Cool right? This gives us an early indication of a possible breakout. Then we see the price bouncing off the SMA and turning it into support. This can be shown on the oscillator by turning the zero level into support. Then the actual breakout happens and we resolve higher.
What about present day? We would be looking for the same thing to happen. We have already broken through the SMA, now we will be looking to retest the resistance. If we break it on the %SMA oscillator first, that will be an early indication that we are going to resolve higher. If we fail at this resistance, we will look to continue the downtrend. So at these critical levels, remember to raise cash. There is no reason to be fully invested. Especially since we will likely get a retest anyways.
So here we have the total market cap on the 3 day chart with a 21 SMA. On the bottom, we have the % above/below SMA oscillator on the same period. They look the same right? Well there are subtle differences! Let’s start back at “Volmageddon”. Here we have a classic fakeout. This fakeout resulted in one of the most epic down moves we have ever seen. This just goes to show you how important the particulars become at these points in the charts. Notice that the the price and the %SMA oscillator are acting the same at this time.
The important subtle difference comes around the start of July. The %SMA oscillator tests and breaks the downward sloping resistance before the price by one candle! Cool right? This gives us an early indication of a possible breakout. Then we see the price bouncing off the SMA and turning it into support. This can be shown on the oscillator by turning the zero level into support. Then the actual breakout happens and we resolve higher.
What about present day? We would be looking for the same thing to happen. We have already broken through the SMA, now we will be looking to retest the resistance. If we break it on the %SMA oscillator first, that will be an early indication that we are going to resolve higher. If we fail at this resistance, we will look to continue the downtrend. So at these critical levels, remember to raise cash. There is no reason to be fully invested. Especially since we will likely get a retest anyways.
Comment:
Here we have some slight differences as well. We see that BTC didn’t reach the downward sloping resistance at the failure point for either the price or the oscillator. We then saw the huge dump. So we want to be careful right now, because that is the same situation we are in. We are currently testing the SMA. Now we are seeing the %SMA oscillator testing the resistance, which is something that we did not see happen when we had the dump. So if we see a breakout on the %SMA, it increases the probability of a breakout on the price in the next 3 day period. Now let’s look at ETH:
Here we have some slight differences as well. We see that BTC didn’t reach the downward sloping resistance at the failure point for either the price or the oscillator. We then saw the huge dump. So we want to be careful right now, because that is the same situation we are in. We are currently testing the SMA. Now we are seeing the %SMA oscillator testing the resistance, which is something that we did not see happen when we had the dump. So if we see a breakout on the %SMA, it increases the probability of a breakout on the price in the next 3 day period. Now let’s look at ETH:
Comment:
ETH looks the most different at this point. Volmageddon didn’t even give ETH the chance to hit the downward sloping resistance, which caused the failure right through the SMA. Then for the breakout, we saw ETH hold the SMA. After that, we saw it break resistance and turn it into support before resolving higher. That brings us to today where ETH has the only upward sloping resistance line out of all of the charts. We will be looking for the %SMA oscillator to give us a clue about what happens next.
Happy Trading!
ETH looks the most different at this point. Volmageddon didn’t even give ETH the chance to hit the downward sloping resistance, which caused the failure right through the SMA. Then for the breakout, we saw ETH hold the SMA. After that, we saw it break resistance and turn it into support before resolving higher. That brings us to today where ETH has the only upward sloping resistance line out of all of the charts. We will be looking for the %SMA oscillator to give us a clue about what happens next.
Happy Trading!
Comment:
Overall, I would say this is more bullish than bearish
Comment:
We have seen all of these trend lines fail and ultimately it looks as though we will trend lower
We have seen all of these trend lines fail and ultimately it looks as though we will trend lower
We are seeing the same behavior out of TOTAL2 with some small differences. For the fakeout and the breakout, we actually saw the SMA hold support. The only difference was the failure at the downward sloping resistance for the fakeout. So what are we looking for today? We are looking to see of the %SMA oscillator will provide an early sign of a fakeout or a breakout. Much the same as TOTAL.