SimpleCryptoLife

Alts: new highs in 2020?

Long

The forecast: altcoins, measured against BTC, look to me to be ready for a large long-term move up, starting now, and lasting maybe the rest of the year.

I've chosen a weekly timeframe to take a long-term view. The chart is a little busy, so let's break it down piece by piece.

First, support/resistance levels:

Within a larger S/R zone, the Everything Dip (between the two vertical blue lines) caused us to retest a support level back from 2 years ago. It looks like a small deal on this chart, but of course Bitcoin crashed hard against the dollar. Hopefully you guys were Tethered: when BTC is bearish against the dollar, it's almost never the right time to be long alts.

Next, Fib retracement:
We retraced a fairly perfect 0.786 retrace of the whole 2017 bull run. That's a deep retrace but pretty normal for alts in general on lower timeframes. It can give us some confidence that the bottom, around 6.5, is in, and what we've seen since then is consolidation, which has been reclaiming support levels.

Next, let's put it together with Elliot Waves and some simple trend lines:
If the great bull run of 2017 was one big impulsive 1-5 move, it's clearly already had its ABC correction. The ensuing consolidation has taken us up out of the descending wedge (whether drawn on the wicks or closes). Logically, the next move should be another impulsive 1-5 move. A conservative target for this larger move would be the 1-1.272 extension, pictured in the red box.

When? Bullish case is right now, of course. But if the global equity markets collapse and we enter a Depression (which I think is likely), they could temporarily drag crypto assets with them down to one of the previous green support levels first. As crypto traders we have to believe that the crypto space will decouple at some point from the traditional markets.

Using my open-source Williams Fractal Trailing Stops to check market structure, we see clearly that we broke the previous high and have put in a higher high and higher low:
Adding my "Price Action Trend | Simple" indicator and some TradingView exponential moving averages:
We see that the big dip didn't even take us out of a healthy green uptrend. We reclaimed the 200 EMA. Above this red line equates to a long-term bull trend. The 8 and 21 week EMAs are also bull crossed and successfully defended a dip: a very good sign.

Conclusion: If we close above the white 55-week EMA up and hold it, we should be in for a very profitable 2020.

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