Looking for an area to add to a swing short on this I entered using the attached chart.
Using a pitchfork seems like it might provide a framework for catching a potential head and shoulders pattern while it completes wave 4 before entering wave 5 that swings below the recent .014 low.
I think as long as BTC is flat it's going to make people get bored with alts and they'll continue to bail on them. So I think following the downward channel will be useful for finding pullbacks as long as BTC remains stuck in the giant triangle.
The reason I'm targeting the major monthly low is that there's basically nothing on the volume profile between the recent swing low and the low from the month chart. Once it's clear of the recent swing low isn't holding support it should trigger stops to the downside.
The main danger from this type of trade is short squeezes, but not major fundamental bullish strength. So I will be looking at squeeze type price action as opportunities to short.
Using a pitchfork seems like it might provide a framework for catching a potential head and shoulders pattern while it completes wave 4 before entering wave 5 that swings below the recent .014 low.
I think as long as BTC is flat it's going to make people get bored with alts and they'll continue to bail on them. So I think following the downward channel will be useful for finding pullbacks as long as BTC remains stuck in the giant triangle.
The reason I'm targeting the major monthly low is that there's basically nothing on the volume profile between the recent swing low and the low from the month chart. Once it's clear of the recent swing low isn't holding support it should trigger stops to the downside.
The main danger from this type of trade is short squeezes, but not major fundamental bullish strength. So I will be looking at squeeze type price action as opportunities to short.
Comment:
Updated pitchfork to draw from slope and width from linear regression on day chart, also looking like most ideal short would be at 0.01534 which fades the bottom of a long wick on 4 hour chart.
Comment:
Decided to cover existing short because btc acting a little bullish and chances are pretty strong will be able to get in again at better price with more weight at head or right shoulder. This also reduces exposure time in market.
Comment:
It actually came pretty much exactly to the area I had as the head and got me filled on a standing over night limit order. I might add a little more up here to the short but am mainly looking for the right shoulder.
Comment:
This is also an example of a short squeeze like I was watching for so if it makes any more wicks pointing upward I might add here as well.
Comment:
BTC very close to possible bounce point and I want to see what TRX does before adding to short
Comment:
Made very slightly new higher high so head still being built, not quite ready to add to short.
Comment:
Was wrong on location of head, it was actually a left shoulder or maybe not a head and shoulders at all. Waiting to look like it's found the right shoulder before scaling in more. Not adding here even though it looks like the head.
Comment:
Got overnight fill on potential right shoulder at .01544. Using ghost bars to get idea what it might do if is not head and shoulders but just rectangle of chop.
Definitely willing to allow it to go sideways for a while until it finds the edge of the pitchfork channel and dumps. BTC likely to roll over in that time and give a catalyst to trade lower.
Overall target form monthly chart at .011 means have room on RRR to hold through volatility.
Definitely willing to allow it to go sideways for a while until it finds the edge of the pitchfork channel and dumps. BTC likely to roll over in that time and give a catalyst to trade lower.
Overall target form monthly chart at .011 means have room on RRR to hold through volatility.
Comment:
Looking to scale out a bit here at neckline of HS since it could definitely chop higher.
Going to trail a stop closely rather than getting out at market.
Going to trail a stop closely rather than getting out at market.
Comment:
Had an exit signal script fire off so just got out almost entirely of both scale ins, still have a small amount but mainly looking for it to chop higher and get in again closer to the pitchfork bounds. Overall goal here is to reduce time in market, not necessarily get best price.
Comment:
Exit was really quite good, now have more cash to scale in closer to pitchfork
Comment:
Made slightly higher high while BTC slowly crawls to the top of the triangle. Watching for an actual head around the region of the pitchfork bounds and then the right shoulder on a 2nd tag of the pitchfork. Pretty much trading this as a rectangle with a bearish bias.
Comment:
Strong divergence showing up on volume and momentum suggesting this might finally be the head. Not trading it, waiting for it to roll forward a little and am much more interested in finding a right shoulder to get back in short.
Comment:
Really close to shorting this some, this and btc are stalling out. This is possibly the head so I will only go in with partial size and add the rest on the right shoulder.
TV has a bug where it won't let me post the image....
tradingview . com/x/tf0gBNab/
TV has a bug where it won't let me post the image....
tradingview . com/x/tf0gBNab/
Comment:
Scaling in a tiny bit short at .01582
Comment:
Added more at 1580, considering options for neck line scale out
