janfoux

Tesla bull case update, no worries!

NASDAQ:TSLA   Tesla
Reason why I say 'no worries' is because I'm sure about the Tesla bull case that I laid out before. What I did at the end of 2019 was a deep fundamental analysis, and I stated that "Tesla is going to thrive, during the following 5 years it's gonna be BIG, 10 years HUGE".

Well... it became true a little early (prematurely), so this is one reason why now we might experience some retracement, in other words, correction. This does not mean that we are going down because there would be anything wrong with the company. It's just how the stock market works. The farther out we get from home base (50 MA on the weekly, in this chart) the bigger the chance we should see the tendency to go back. That 50 MA line will cross -around the middle of March- with my thicker, green "bull case" trend line, and that is where we might bounce and continue the trend up, or at least stay around it hopefully.

The thinner, red trend line is more like a "hype line" I would call it, as even though it might be valid and justifiable on the short term, but unsustainable on the long run (just like the swift run up in February, remember?). Because the steeper the price movement, the bigger the retracement that will likely follow. This is a rule of thumb, just like the phenomenon I just pointed out before (about the price going towards home base -the magnet). These of course are related - actually kind of almost the same thing in different words, except that it is also possible to have very long side moves and "wait" for the moving average to catch up slowly. For an example, check out what did Apple after the previous stock split. Not the one just recently but several years ago when it was a 7/1 split. The price didn't go anywhere for about 1,5 years after it if I remember right, it did a shallow cop, though there was no problem with the company, so the stock price does not represent the companies financial situation - just so you know, one can not argue about a short term price movement based on long term fundamentals, just like as a long term fundamental is not going to cause a short term price change (except when lots of traders invest at the same period of time looking ahead of time for some news or media hype or something what we saw during the Covid lockdown), but then again, this shouldn't mean anything for the present in terms of fundamentals.
Let me quote "time is more important than price" as we learned from David Frost. This is what is happening now. And as Elon just said recently "the stock price is going to be higher in 5 years, than where it is now" and I bet, He will be right (again).

Technicals: since the split, price is moving sideways, though volume, MACD and RSI are all descending. This is a bearish hidden divergence, meaning it is more likely that the price might go down in the near future. Triangle wedge formation or not, we are in a corrective phase, I believe.

Trade safe, invest smart, take care of yourselves.

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