The smallest timeframe I like to use for swing trade analysis are the 2hr timeframes. We can see that TSLA is running into sellers at the 50% re-tracement level. We know MMs can run stops on shorts before quickly reversing. Since it looks like the 50% level is showing some resistance and we have what appears to be an island reversal, a short set-up has formed IMO. I think MMs could run up price to clear the gap at 1133.33 before reversing. The plan will be to short TSLA at 1130 with a SL at 1153. Why such a small stop? I like to wait for what I feel is a great set up and if it doesn't work as planned then I like to exit quickly with minimal loss...plus I'm guessing there are too many ST buyers who will be sellers at 1150 hence I'm thinking it will not get to this price. What's important on the 2hr...we cannot have a bullish closing over the 50% re-tracement nor can price get above 1150; truthfully I don't think price should get above 1136.41 which is the .618 of the large bearish candle body.
Trade closed manually:
I took the trade at 1132 as I felt quite confident it was going to hit 1133 and was thinking it might quickly reverse into closing. I then followed the stock on the 5 min since the 2 hour had closed over the 50% retracement and told myself that the stock MUST reverse or I'm out as it would close bullish. I moved up my stop loss to 1135 and was stopped out within 8 mins of closing. TSLA is closing the weekly, daily, 2 hr & 4hr bullish so no reason to hold a short position into next week. Will re-evaluate over the weekend as I still think we have a Island Reversal.