vlad.adrian
Short

Tesla - Top built

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA MTRS INC
224 4 5
This looks like a proper top in Tesla             , double class A bearish divergence. How do you know when a rally is getting exhausted?? Divergences and angle changes. I have been using angle changes for a while, but never posted them on my charts, cause they are clear for the naked eye.

Leaving some wiggling aside, I believe Tesla             is going down pretty heavily. I do not know about the fundamentals of this company, but technically, I would say 200$ is a realistic target. Below that, well it is all about the overall market and how strong the correction will be. Yes, a correction is coming, only question remaining is the magnitude.

PS : I don't know what happened to the first angled trend line, but the number is correct, it is 26 degrees

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mazdaki PRO
2 years ago
The graph presented with the second lower target is not inline with an Elliot Wave pattern (with a weekly time frame). On a weekly basis, The 5 waves on the initial uptrend cycle was completed in February.

In the case presented your assumed Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1 and that is not permitted. under Elliot Wave rules. If the same graph is looked at on a monthly basis, we notice that we may be in the corrective phase of Wave 2. In such as case, your first target is still possible but not highly likely.

Currently, the stock is in the process of completing wave 2 by bouncing between Fibonacci retracement values. importantly we are sitting right on top of the long term trend and retesting Oct 1st low. if the stock is to stay in the current uptrend with should see a bounce on Monday. if it breaks lower than wave 2 could be completed either at 220-221 range (Fib =0.382) or at 204-205 range (Fib = 0.234).

I look forward to your feedback and best wishes.
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vlad.adrian PRO mazdaki
2 years ago
Well, I don't watch Elliott waves (with double t) so I can't give any feedback. Elliott waves are very subjective, and just because 'it is not permitted' doesn't mean it is not going to happen, otherwise there wouldn't be any stock going from 100$ to 1$. Anyway, Elliott is Elliott, divergence is divergence, support is support. They are not in line all the time. It is a matter of preference. I prefer divergence and support.
Thank you!
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mazdaki PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
To some extent I agree that stocks may not necessarily follow the expected direction. The divergence on the weekly or monthly scale has been going on for months. and the stock has been going up and up for almost its whole past history. It is hard say when it will turn. what make this time point special? The slope of the increase may be decreasing but does not mean it will drop as dramatically as expected. To put this in perspective, one could also connect the minimums and realize a wedge on the MACD, instead of divergence. I appreciate the different perspective provided along with the interaction. Thank you.
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