2020 is shaping up to be a monster year for Tesla. As the company achieves certain milestones, shorts will continue to cover and larger institutional "buy and hold" type investors will begin to pile in.
Q4 '19 earnings are going to be released on January 29 (Wednesday) and I believe they're going to beat analyst estimates comfortably given estimates are on par with where actual Q3 earnings came out. Q4 had ~15% higher deliveries and the company benefits from significant operating leverage. In December, Tesla released Summon in China which will release FSD deferred revenue in Q4. This will send the stock towards $700 by March w/ the help of short covering.
On the Q4 '19 earnings call, I expect the overall tone to be very positive given the momentum Tesla is experiencing. There were rumors that the Model Y would be starting production in Q1 2020 from CleanTechnica and Deutsche Bank, and these types of rumors have typically come true for the company. This will pull forward revenues and accelerate margin expansion. Additionally, management will probably shed some light on the dates for their "Battery Day" and "Autonomy Day", which I expect to be in 1H 2020.
On the Q1 '20 earnings call, I also project an earnings beat driven by Shanghai model 3 deliveries and Model Y. Analysts are basically extrapolating the initial model 3 ramp in Fremont for their estimates, which are obviously way too conservative given they've learned quite a bit from that exercise. This will send the stock towards $900-1,000 by May.
An added bonus is that I believe the Tesla Network will be released by Summer 2020, acting initially as an Uber-like platform until full autonomy is achieved and approved by regulators. This will pull forward additional revenue, accelerate margin expansion and multiple expansion (towards tech and away from auto). Additionally, customers will basically be getting test rides, accelerating demand for Tesla vehicles!
Q4 '19 earnings are going to be released on January 29 (Wednesday) and I believe they're going to beat analyst estimates comfortably given estimates are on par with where actual Q3 earnings came out. Q4 had ~15% higher deliveries and the company benefits from significant operating leverage. In December, Tesla released Summon in China which will release FSD deferred revenue in Q4. This will send the stock towards $700 by March w/ the help of short covering.
On the Q4 '19 earnings call, I expect the overall tone to be very positive given the momentum Tesla is experiencing. There were rumors that the Model Y would be starting production in Q1 2020 from CleanTechnica and Deutsche Bank, and these types of rumors have typically come true for the company. This will pull forward revenues and accelerate margin expansion. Additionally, management will probably shed some light on the dates for their "Battery Day" and "Autonomy Day", which I expect to be in 1H 2020.
On the Q1 '20 earnings call, I also project an earnings beat driven by Shanghai model 3 deliveries and Model Y. Analysts are basically extrapolating the initial model 3 ramp in Fremont for their estimates, which are obviously way too conservative given they've learned quite a bit from that exercise. This will send the stock towards $900-1,000 by May.
An added bonus is that I believe the Tesla Network will be released by Summer 2020, acting initially as an Uber-like platform until full autonomy is achieved and approved by regulators. This will pull forward additional revenue, accelerate margin expansion and multiple expansion (towards tech and away from auto). Additionally, customers will basically be getting test rides, accelerating demand for Tesla vehicles!
Comment:
Overshot in short-term, but came right back to where I projected it would be at this time. If well-researched, stick by your convictions!