TSLA bulls getting anxious, greedy and irritated as stock has been hoovering not doing anything (at least in TSLA terms) for the past 20 days....What better than to look at the 2030 opportunity in Tesla related software....Morgan Stanley explores the potential for Tesla to pivot the model from selling cars to generating high margin, recurring software revenue......the key to unlocking more extreme bull case scenarios.
"Base case analysis implies that Tesla can increase auto gross margins by 1.2%, on average, through 2030 (nearly 3% at peak) vs. current gross margin forecasts. Research assumes that Tesla is able to increase the FSD attach rate by roughly 200bps per year through 2030 and increase the price by 3% a year over that same time frame. If you apply a more optimistic "Blue Sky" scenario where the attach rate of FSD rises 5% per year, stabilizing at 75% by 2030 at a cost of $15k, this implies 400bps of auto gross margin improvement vs. our current forecasts…"
TME chart comment, time to break out of this tight range...
"Base case analysis implies that Tesla can increase auto gross margins by 1.2%, on average, through 2030 (nearly 3% at peak) vs. current gross margin forecasts. Research assumes that Tesla is able to increase the FSD attach rate by roughly 200bps per year through 2030 and increase the price by 3% a year over that same time frame. If you apply a more optimistic "Blue Sky" scenario where the attach rate of FSD rises 5% per year, stabilizing at 75% by 2030 at a cost of $15k, this implies 400bps of auto gross margin improvement vs. our current forecasts…"
TME chart comment, time to break out of this tight range...