With FOMC March 2019 meeting a little under 24 hours away, I am taking a good look at US ten year note futures. Seems to me there is potential for a wave 3 to start on a breakout if the FOMC remains dovish, as expected. I admit that waves are completely subjective and plenty of wavers will tell me that it's all wrong, but I can only call what I see the potential to develop, and that is wave 1, followed by wave 2 with and ABC correction in it and now the possibility of higher prices.
Combine this with an Ichimoku chart on a weekly and to me, the set up looks good for the probability of higher prices. I am looking to go long TY on a break of 123*03 and targeting somewhere beyond the next retracement level of 123*29 area and hoping it can push as high as 125. I don't have a solid stop in mind, but at least a big figure would be my initial thoughts, however, I feel reasonably confident that the price is going higher.
Combine this with an Ichimoku chart on a weekly and to me, the set up looks good for the probability of higher prices. I am looking to go long TY on a break of 123*03 and targeting somewhere beyond the next retracement level of 123*29 area and hoping it can push as high as 125. I don't have a solid stop in mind, but at least a big figure would be my initial thoughts, however, I feel reasonably confident that the price is going higher.
Comment:
This trade is looking good now, but be aware that the yields could easily retrace back higher without changing the overall trend (yield higher/price lower). I'm pumping the rabbits foot this one turns out the way I hope. Looking to cover half my position between 123*28 and 123*30
Comment:
Sorry, I meant to say (yield lower/price higher)
Comment:
Hold hard now. The market was always going to come back and test the position out. We want and embrace this pullback as it's all apart of the big picture on making the next base to rally off. I have my stops set on half my position not too far away. If I get stopped, I get stopped, but until price moves a lot lower, we still look bullish
Comment:
Cover half at 123*26-123*28
Comment:
Profit on half hit. I want to see how the dust settles and then start to think about stops but at present, 123*08 would be the stop out on the rest of the position. I think we can extend all the to up to 125 and beyond
Trade closed manually:
Much to my self disgust (haha) I have closed out my entire position, which will probably turn out to be a mistake, HOWEVER, I think there is one more opportunity to play what I see as wave 5 on the hourly. I will refer back to this larger chart, but I will post a fresh idea with an hourly view