AMEX:TZA DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X SHARES
Wow, all signs show a stall. Normally I am not one to miss an opportunity to predict a turning point, but... this time is different. It is so unclear which way things are headed, I am just sitting in the bleachers watching, waiting, looking for a sign. My only play today is June puts on the TFM report today, as a picker one time event. Best of fortunes to the hardy souls that venture in today. Checking the morning pre market, very curious, and puzzling, VIX a bit up, SPYa bit up, what's up with that? I have seen this a few times lately. Reminds me of the movie, something wicked this way comes.
Ah, ok that's "consolidation". Also, bol bands tightened a lot right before the FOMC minutes disclosure yesterday, especially on currencies, and then, a little bump up, down, and then nothing. Another sign this market is thirsty for, frustrated, desiring a catalyst to add volatility, and there just isn't any. Markets react, but with nothing to react to...? Earnings past few days have been so so, nothing huge. Maybe put up the sign until Tuesday, gone fishing? And what about that... markets closed Monday, and those terrible three day closed markets 4th day trouble days. Does it stay boring for 4 more days or not? I think that is a lot to ask, but what do I know.
I day trade TNA and TZA and the bias today is bullish (for the time being, at least). I bought TNA at 11:19 EST @ 65.77. Current price is 66.27. Swing trading a sideways market (like the one we are in) is nearly impossible. I don't use any oscillators or indicators other than a moving average; all is based on trend and trading ranges and consolidations and breakouts / reversals.
I have been thinking of doing just that, focus on TNA and TZA and trade the daily trend exclusively. i.e. TZA headed, now that yesterday's down day broke the small triangle, so... TZA should touch the bottom trend line, and bounce all the way back up to the top trend line of the channel. That's estimated 5 to 7 days to accomplish if the trend stays consistent with past moves. Agree? Thanks for chiming in, appreciate your comments.
1. Don't know why you choose the 240 chart, but if you look at the daily chart you see a somewhat different story. TNA, TZA, or the Russell Index itself all show that we are in more of a box-shaped range, that contains a minor channel.
2. I don't predict any particular thing, over any particular period of time; I'm just a simple trend follower. TZA might bounce, as you suggest. It might fall further. It might go sideways. The market can and will do whatever it wants. I take it as it comes; one day at a time.