BMYWin
Long

Just 50% and 25%

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
92 2 5
50% : It is just hit 50% of the rebound, if we measure the low of 2016/02/11 (29.89) to the high of 2016/06/09 (52.83). The low price 41.49 on 2016/08/02 is just 50% rebound of the up trend.

25% : Closed on Friday 44.37 is just 75% from the high price 52.83 on 2016/06/09 to the low price 41.49 on 2016/08/02.

Is 41.49 the bottom of this downtrend? Not sure yet, it is still need several factors to confirm it. Because the transaction volume is still low, we think Bear might come back to test this low price again.

Maybe next week price will test 20 MA, but it is not easy to break it out because of transaction volume still in a low status. Price test 200 MA, and daily close stand above 200MA for three days, it is supposed that 200 MA has got supported. We hit and run last week for long position while price hit 42.50( logn             ) and 43.80(profit recorded), and reenter long position this week while price lower than 42.21(the low on 2015/08/24). Our target price will be around 45, and our stop profit price will be 42.45.
timson77 PRO
3 months ago
Thank you for great analysis! Waiting for your next idea )
Reply
BMYWin timson77
3 months ago
Thank you very much. I was in the hospital for small operation last week. Therefore, I did not write our weekly observation summary.
Our observation is:
It is clear end of 2 months major traders' holiday, and end of bullish correction, and start another new bull run. Transaction volume is confirmed coming back.
Correction time is near 0.382 days of bullish time. (count the bullish days, and correction days)
We estimate the first upside target might be around 49.99 to 50.30.
Then maybe will have a drop back to 46.8 to 48.5.
And a Possible development might be target to a high of 53.70 to 55.70

Let's see what market movement will it be next.
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