BMYWin
Long

Moderate Bullish

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
102 4 2
Last week we guess it might have a correction when facing the pressure of previous high 52.83 on 2016/06/09. But price went higher than this price on Double Ten days (2016/10/10) to a high of 53.71. We was turning our correction view to a active bullish view that price might challenge one year ago's high at 54.03 on 2015/10/09 to 54.29 on 2015/08/31. But it did not done this. Therefore, we think major player might consider to change their portfolio in energy, they might swap their short position to long position for the long run. While they SWAP their position, they will try to push down the price and enter long position. Daily and weekly are all closed a RED CROSS: indicating a rest of the bullish , and finding new direction recently. We keep Moderate Bullish view on crude oil             price. We won't go short while it is in a moderate bullish trend , but we will go long position while we confirm back test could not penetrate 20 MA and 50 MA.(*20 MA will climbing higher to around 50 recently)

Bullish Signal:
1. Friday Close >10MA > 20MA > 50MA
2. Create a Higher High for recently one year period.
3. OPEC agree to have a production limited control.
4. Russia agree OPEC's new direction, and might join OPEC.
5. India and China' physical demand is still high
6. Hedge fund turning from short position to long position.
7. Weekly chart show 3 white man.

Bearish Signal:
1. OPEC production still climbing record high.
2. Nigeria production and export figure recovery after leakage.
3. Not yet final confirm the product quota guide line for every member of OPEC. Still someway to go.
4. 54 is a big pressure while starting to drop price since one year ago.
ShortThePlanet
3 months ago
Hi! Great analysis, thank you for sharing!
Regarding "Hedge fund turning from short position to long position" - can you tell where such stats is published?
Thanks!
Reply
BMYWin ShortThePlanet
3 months ago
ENERGY | Fri Oct 14, 2016 | 4:28pm EDT
UPDATE 2-Hedge funds turn most bullish on U.S. crude in over two years
http://www.reuters.com/search/news?sortBy=&dateRange=&blob=hedge+fund


ENERGY | Mon Oct 10, 2016 | 9:00pm EDT
RPT-COLUMN-Saudi Arabia squeezes hedge funds with bearish bets on oil: Kemp
http://www.reuters.com/article/oil-global-kemp-idUSL8N1CG35A

Money Managers' net long position in Brent+WTI
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ICE Future Eruope@JKempEnergy
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/2/686/686/COMBINED%20BRENT%20AND%20WTI%20SHORT%20POSITIONS%20(WEEKLY%20DELTA).png

Money managers' long and short position in the three main crude oil futures and options contract (millions barrels) (NYMEX WTI, ICE WTI, and ICE Brent)
Surce: CME Group, ICE Future Europe@JKempEnergy
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/2/687/687/COMBINED%20BRENT%20AND%20WTI%20POSITIONS%20(LONG%20AND%20SHORT).png
+1 Reply
ShortThePlanet BMYWin
3 months ago
Thank you!
Reply
BMYWin ShortThePlanet
3 months ago
You are welcome.
Reply
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