I agree with you - that we should see a bearish move on this. But looking at the lower time frames, we had a huge bearish impulse and are right now seeing correction from that. I would expect the next impulse to be bearish as well and start the big short. Do you see something else - since you expect it to reverse to 58?
In my opinion, the only moreless secure indicator nowadays is the US Dollar Index.
But my comment was related more to a movement vector rather than a point correlation: if oil goes down 20% in a certain period, S&P would do the same, surely on a lower amount. I can see oil down when S&P hits 2290-2300 but not earlier
Given oil and sp500's correlation, (I''ve placed over 200 trades in the daily timeframes on those instruments in 2016, so they are two of my favorites). I do in the longer run we are heading for lower oil prices....The S&P500 will take some of the dips when oils starts declining below key levels...then the fear will fade away and the S&P will as allways keep on climbing. S&P 500 is probably one of the most safe investments one can make for long time investing, read "common sense investing" by Bogle if you're interested for why:)