Still a Box Moving

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
123 0 2
Concerning the transaction volume was too small losing momentum, we expected a triangle development or a box range trading last week, and it was a box movement last week between 46.12 to 50.72. Transaction somewhat coming back to normal. For the past three days the transaction volume is greater than MAV5 > MAV10. But transaction volume is still less than 20 day average. Friday price close a red cross indicating a rest, want to consider next step movement. And the closing price lower than 300 MA (Close), but a little bit higher than 300 MA(Low). The 3rd time price knock 300 MA door. Will next week breakdown this key price? Let's keeping watch.

Bullish signal:
1. Major economic indicator show positive signs.
2. Crude Oil             Inventory decrease.
3. Major stock index climbing high (S&P500- SPX             , Dow-Jones Industrial Index( DOWI             ), UK100             ...)
4. Major petroleum company's stock price going up, (such as Exxom( XOM             ), Royal Dotch Shell( RDSA             ), BP             ...)
5. Physical demand is still strong.

Bearish signal:
1. No agreement to cut production between major oil             export countries
2. After 5th month price going up, now it seems want to take a rest.
3. 5 day moving average lower than 10 days, 20 days and 50 days moving average. Even 20 MA M < 50 MA.
4. Transaction Volume decrease (Weekly slight up, but just half of past five week. )

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