BMYWin
Long

Take a Rest

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
140 3 3
Bull and Bear take a rest here. Box moving (or Triangle development)
Bear knock 300 MA(Low) for 5 times, the price still standing above 300 MA(Low). Friday closed above 10 day MA, but 5 days MA still lower than 10 Day MA. 20 MA cross lower than 50 MA. All of above message are indicating it is still in a correction status. Transaction volume coming back a little bit, but it is only 2/3 of normal transaction volume . Major traders are taking half year holiday, maybe it is why price still in a box moving development. Next week it might be still a box moving status between 45.40 to 48.88 range..

Bullish Signal:
1. Saudi Economist and EIA             report indicate that Demand > Supply in 2017.
2. Major Stock Index going high.
3. Transaction volume were big when knocking 300 day MA for several times, but unable to pull down the price. (Maybe can be viewed as major traders's PDTB (pull down to buy strategy.)
4. 5 Months MA just cross above 300 Months MA
5. 5 consecutive months price go up, when price pull back will be the buy point opportunity.

Bearish Signal:
1. Weekly inventory increase.
2. Saudi and Iran Production increase.
3. Small Transaction volume
4. Continue to create lower low weekly. (This week low < Last week low), and unable to create higher high (This week high < last week high)
5. Strong US dollar             .

Overall in a correction status.
Thank you for this analysis which offers a different perspective on my favorite instrument!
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BMYWin copydrbij
Thank you. Your analysis are quite good. Hourly trading, Daily trading and weekly trading are different. They shall have different position management.
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Thanks. Indeed, the longer timeframes are an art i am yet to master. I often find myself exiting positions early.
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