Hit and Run

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
107 0 2
A fast correction toward our target price 42.50-43.00 area last week, daily and hourly lower low. Only Friday appear a weak buy signal. Price dropped for 6 days. Transaction volume is very small. Let see if 200 MA can get support or not. One interested phenomenon : Spot market price drop price speed lower than future market price. Their spread now enlarge to near USD2.00 /bbl from 1.00 recently. We enter our long position. But we might adopt a Hit and run operation strategy. The price might forming a W bottom. Test low will come back again. Rebound target might be 43.8 or 44             .00, then we will take profit, and reenter long position when price might retest 42.00, even 40.00.

Bullish signal:
- After one month strong US dollar             move, the US dollar             seems want to take a rest.
- Physical SPOT market demand is still strong.
- Production of the Refinery in US still keeping their normal capacity, indicating that real economic is not so bad.

Bearish Signal:
-MA50 > MA20 > MA10 > MA5.
-non-stop 6 days drop the price, only Friday short position take profit causing price rebound.
-Crude Oil             Product still keeping high export record.
-Transaction Vol             still low.

Overall, bear control the market currently, bull need to watch out the bottom of the correction.
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