nen

The Bond Dilemma

nen Updated   
TVC:US10   US Government Bonds 10 YR
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential milestone for a scenario in which in case it is hit, and only in this scenario, a pivot point might be expected at the marked time stamp. The marked price level is also relevant in case a correction is formed near it, leading to a potential end of it, with a candlestick potential reversal pattern that can signal an opportunity to jump on the action of the next wave.

We use Japanese Candlesticks in our analysis to compute the tendencies of the market, the sentiment, the overall context of each wave, but also to assess any potential weakness in a wave (useful and required for position management), or a complete reversal.

While the obvious scenarios in which a turnaround can occur at the upper rectangle, a bounce from the red one, or an incursion towards the big green one, might sound appealing to us, we must also not limit ourselves to such scenarios and keep an open mind for any other opportunities signaled by the candlestick analysis, and the overall context of the flows and events in the market.

As usual, this project will be followed by short updates for milestones, highlights, or potential red alert scenarios (pivot points or reversals). Trade with care, and may the force of profits be with you!
Comment:
A hit on the first dot. This down move might not reach the blue line before a pivot point occurs and an attempt for a continuation of the previous bullish sentiment.
Comment:
Two small candlestick shadows signaling support and potential reversal sentiment. No big momentum on the bullish attempt. One possible scenario for the near future is a consolidation period.
Comment:
Interesting formation of candles at the top of the bull wave. This could be a turning point at the time stamp of the second dot.
Comment:
The mentioned candlestick formation could turn into just a consolidation period.
Comment:
Resistance with a rebound met at the top of the rectangle.
Comment:
Touchdown on the orange. Let's see if there is a small timid correction towards the marked time stamp and an inflection point around there...
Comment:
No stop at the time stamp which was a longer bullish candle to continue the turnaround sentiment that started building up around the orange rectangle which proved to be an inflection point zone. Added some more elements for the end of the project although I doubt we will see the white ellipse being touched in its time zone.
Comment:
This candle under the red rectangle looks good for a potential pivot point if it remains about the same until close.
Comment:
Touchdown on the green.
Comment:
There is no definite clear candlestick pattern or setup here to catch the eye, after the "consolidation" and reduced volatility at the top edge of the big green rectangle. Nevertheless, my bias is towards an incursion up to the 99 level.

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