Dow Jones on the verge of an impulse down?
A big bearish hidden divergence is shaping up on the daily chart. However, betting on technicals alone when you short against US stocks is risky... That's where fundamentals come into play.
War in Ukraine: rising energy prices will slow down the global economy, although the USA is more shielded than Europe or East Asia (Japan, Taiwan etc.) -> strongly Bearish.
Hawkish central bank: the current steep uptrend (notably on the SP500) is bound to stop. The central bank can't keep the bubble alive forever -> strongly Bearish.
More and more country thinking about moving away from the Petrodollar -> Bearish.
Economic sanctions on Russia -> Bearish.
Economic recovery post-COVID -> Bullish.
"Buy the dip" mentality strong with retail -> slightly Bullish but potentially limited for this index devoid of "meme" stocks or "tech" stocks (Dow Jones 30).
Overall a fairly bearish picture.
War in Ukraine: rising energy prices will slow down the global economy, although the USA is more shielded than Europe or East Asia (Japan, Taiwan etc.) -> strongly Bearish.
Hawkish central bank: the current steep uptrend (notably on the SP500) is bound to stop. The central bank can't keep the bubble alive forever -> strongly Bearish.
More and more country thinking about moving away from the Petrodollar -> Bearish.
Economic sanctions on Russia -> Bearish.
Economic recovery post-COVID -> Bullish.
"Buy the dip" mentality strong with retail -> slightly Bullish but potentially limited for this index devoid of "meme" stocks or "tech" stocks (Dow Jones 30).
Overall a fairly bearish picture.