4xForecaster

$DOW - Forecasts For 2014 ... New Target-Low | #DOW #US30

FX:US30   Index of top 30 shares on Wall Street
1147 17 11
$DOW - Forecasts For 2014 & Foreward ... New Target-Low | #DOW #US30


Hello friends of 4xQuad,

So, here it is. A new year. A new horizon ... And no change in our DOW forecasts: While the forecast is bearish , the trend interpretation is currently bullish . Yet, our system points to abysmal levels, hence the "Neutral" chart qualifier.

Since the release of our targets in early October 2013, we hit one and moved on up to our next target. We believe that 17391 will impose a significant overhead resistance, and that from this point forward, a Janus Pattern would potentially take shape to reach lower lows.

In fact, this potential bearish scenario has also carved out a new target low, which is defined as "TG-Low = 2033 - 02 JAN 2014" as of today, January 02nd, 2014.

We would like to remain objective and let our system "speak" for itself, however, we do anticipate comments of all qualitative assortments. However, remember that many of our forecasts have been preceded by incredulous reactions from determined traders.

Our most recent example came from #AUDUSD where we forecast abysmal targets in November 04th, against the "sentimental grain", and by mid December, price had indeed collapsed by covering over 640 pips of our forecast - See this forecast here: http://on.fb.me/1kDHbdB.

Our forecast are not exercises at proving anyone right or wrong. They merely generate directional biases based on a compilation of proprietary methodologies. All forecasts are strictly for educational goals - Here is our disclaimer, if you need to refresh on the rule of this cutthroat game of Forex trading.

In any case, welcome to 2014, and traders beware. Forex market is a wealth transfer mechanism from the more junior trader to the less junior trader: Experience alone means nothing if you have not learned and applied your past lessons wisely.

Cheers,


David Alcindor | 4xquad.com

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Our dead-on hit list: http://bit.ly/16JMnH8
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
15 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$US30 rolling from hit target at 17939; Eyes abysmal 1.666 target at 1.618 #fibonacci:

snapshot


@tradingview $DJI $DJIA
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
12 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$US30 rolled from hitting all forecast targets; Eyeing 16666 at 0.382 #fibonacci:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $DJI
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
No use finding a top when the top is like finding waldo but this time waldo does not exist :) Target who knows 50,000, 100,000, 500,000?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO jonatsgonats
Sure. It always feels safe to speculate away. But the blind man has to trust his stick. And that's the real challenging risk in trading.
+2 Reply
10 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$US30 hit target @ 17605; Reached high-probability reversal; TGx outlier target:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $DJI $SPX $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
Hey David, looks like we hit TG-x, curious what your feelings on this are, still anticipating a strong reversal at this level?
+1 Reply
Hello @devlspawn - The model defines these levels as low-probability reach/high-probability reversal.

It beat the odds of reach. What's at stake now is the probability of reversal.

Again, this is just probability.

David
+2 Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$US30 knocks on target threshold at 17605; High-probability reversal:

snapshot


@tradingview | $USD $EUR $JPY #forex $DJI
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
01 NOV 2014 - Update: L/T Target Hit; Limited Upside Potentials:


Traders,

This chart has been in the oven for quite some time. Late last year (apparently 10 months ago, per TradingView time description), the predictive/forecasting model defined 17391 as a nominal target-high. This is typically a level which offers a low-probability of getting hit, but if and once it is reached, price would be submitted to repulsive forces causing a high-probability reversal (i.e.: a price being pushed to a range exceeding 0.618-Fibonacci relative to the price price swing).


$US30 - H4 chart:
snapshot



However, as price evolved over a much higher timeframe than, the model will tend to allow some elasticity in the forecast (model was calibrated for H4 timeframes). Now that I look at the $US30, there remains some room, albeit with limited upside potential, for price to carve higher-highs.

The background geometry is that of an expanding triangle, with a 1-3 Line casting a promise into a near future for a Point-5 to be defined. I am not at all well versed with this pattern, but consulting the predictive/forecasting model, I have the following forecast values to offer:


1 - TG-Hi = 17605 - 01 NOV 2014

and

2 - TG-x = 17939 - 01 NOV 2014.


If you look back at older analyses (ones done on a trading page on Facebook which I have archived here: https://bitly.com/bundles/dalcindo/6 , and as follows), you will see that the model has been quite precise at holding its predictive analyses and forecasts true:

- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=556889967730713&set=a.394639787289066.93874.383867671699611&type=1&theater
- https://www.facebook.com/notes/4xquad-forecasting-and-technical-analysis-in-forex-indices-and-metals/dow-us30-forecast-hit-dead-on-4xquad-forecasting/511735538912823


At the time, a lot of the analyses and forecasts might have appeared loftier than reasonable. However, they have stood the trial of time. So, the abysmal values offered in this and other archived charts might once again come across as unreasonable, but it is simply a product of both predictive/forecasting model and proprietary patterns that have defined any prior and future targets, to which price has tended and reacted as forecast.

Thank you,


David Alcindor




+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
In regards to potential future price action, there are several scenarios worth considering here. However, most importantly, the bias here favors the predictive/forecasting model's TG-Hi = 17605 target, while the TG-x was added as a "Worst-Case Scenario", a last bearish bastion, so to speak.

Looking at smaller granular timeframes, model favors a rallying into the 1-3 Line, which would define a Point-5 and potentially complete the larger expanding pattern.

However, if this were to occur now, Point-5 might complete, but price would fall short of the TG-Hi target. So, either price will continue to rally and surpass the 1-3-5 Line and hit TG-Hi = 17605, or an interim contraction would play out as shown in the chart before price carves out a higher high and hits that loftier nominal target, G-Hi that is.

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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