4xForecaster
Short

USDollar Index Scrapes Model's Target At 11218 | $USD #Forex

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
1200 13 14
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING + PROP./ADV. PATTERN + TARGETS

Several technical tools point to probable reversal level. Applying predictive/forecasting model today with proprietary pattern overlay, all point to reversal at or near 11218. Prop pattern ("Great White") seeks resolution at an abysmal 9492.


1 - PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING
-- TG-Hi = 11218 - 04


2 - Wave Redux:
-- A = 9740
-- 3 = 10323
-- A' = 10354
-- 3' = 11009


3 - PROP. PATTERN:
-- Great White = 9492 - 04 NOV 2014


4 - NON-PRICE FIELD;
-- Bearish Ghost Pattern completion


5 - ELLIOTT WAVE:
Cluster of 5th wave terminals line up per 1.414-to-1.618-Fib extensions into Model's TG-Hi level.


6 - OCCULT GEO:
Euclidean Module (pink vertical rectangle ) repeats itself (see ghosted numerals 1 and 2). Also, their gap differential (marked as A) repeats itself above second module through gap height projection (marked as B), nearly hitting TG-Hi = 11218 nominal target.


OVERALL:
Very high-probability reversal at TG-Hi = 11218 per convergence of standard and discreet geometries.

- Look for Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal conclusive geometry over next 3-5 weeks, unless aggressive bear market cheats the target of a few points (near-hit).
- Minimum of 38.2-Fib retracement for multi-year swing could represent first hindrance to long-term decline.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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NOTE - I have included a few charts in TradingView's "Link To Related Ideas" illustrating instances where the standard analyses were used as a background to predictive/forecasting model and occult market geometry applications - Thank you for your supportive readership and kind support - David.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
30 NOV 2014 - Update:


================================
Re-post of a comment that includes this Forex pair:
================================


Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).

Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.

Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:


$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
snapshot



$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
snapshot



$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:
snapshot



It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.

However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).

If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:


$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
snapshot



David Alcindor


(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
D.
Reply
USD will sky-rocket very soon. It's not that the US economy is very good. It's just that the market sentiment is like that. Multiple rival currencies - weak - JPY, EUR, RUB, and will get even weaker. Especially JPY and EUR. People and investors mind is not about economy. It's about tendencies and fears. The fear of dollar collapsing has subsided on Apr 2011, and confirmed on Apr 2014 (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dollar%20collapse). Your tech analisys is good and very advanced, but I prefer not to trust it. Whoever buys the dollar now will make the biggest hit on the market. USD will literally EXPLODE very soon. Sell the dollar when Silver reaches 9USD per 1 ounce and buy Silver with the dollars, because that's when its gonna be the bottom of the stock market correction and a resuming of the US QE program.
+1 Reply
Hello @Patladj. - Thank you for your comments.

The force behind the USDollar is not sentimental (" It's about tendencies and fears.") as much as reflexive reaction to sovereign countries pressuring their own currencies downward. Since most of the influential currencies as well as developing economies currencies are pitted against $USD, this market-wide attempt at devaluing sovereign currencies has benefited the Dollar.

Also, commodities have plummeted. Precious metals, which would have been bid under such uncertain environment, would have benefited. However, this has not been the case, and therefore, investors have sought values in the $USD. Improving US economic data have heloed support this bullish $USD outlook as well.

Other sources of investment, such as bonds would have also provided a long-term source of profits, but the easing in Europe and Japan have turned money printing behemoths to purchase their own bonds, thus driving any interest to uninteresting level, so to speak.

While the US may have pulled its foot off of the printing press, per recent announcements that QE was "done", intel suggests that its bond is now being purchased again by China in exchange for some deal that would involve keeping Gold price down - This is rumor, but makes perfect sense, since the metal has been pressured consistently downward, and remains under sustained bearish pressure.

So, all this will keep the USDollar buoyed for sure, against a forecast that calls for a counter-trend. But this is simply a case of now-and-then. The current situation is favoring the $USD for reasons explained above, whereas the forecast is suggesting a probability of reversal. Either side is not an absolute, though.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Comment removed
alex.a timwest
Whenever USD dollar hit this level, it went down that level of 4xCaster. But at that time, I have no idea what kind of funda was playing 2012 June, July to bring up USD this level was very tough and long way ~ But, technically, when USD hit this level, one big swing is down there ~
Reply
alex.a timwest
snapshot
Reply
alex.a timwest
unlike 4xcaster,I don't think it will break the 78.74. Due to the duration, DXY hovering around... So, higher possibilities going down
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alex.a timwest
politically, newly elected Republicans wont let any positive US economy be executed for the people. They won't let. So, perhaps, now FED is all alone to handle. Not good ~
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Hi, @timwest - Let me think about it. I am not sure whether I can do all this, though. For now, I keep the records by capturing charts and archiving them - David
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