Several technical tools point to probable reversal level. Applying predictive/forecasting model today with proprietary pattern overlay, all point to reversal at or near 11218. Prop pattern ("Great White") seeks resolution at an abysmal 9492.
1 - PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING
-- TG-Hi = 11218 - 04
2 - Wave Redux:
-- A = 9740
-- 3 = 10323
-- A' = 10354
-- 3' = 11009
3 - PROP. PATTERN:
-- Great White = 9492 - 04 NOV 2014
4 - NON-PRICE FIELD;
-- Ghost Pattern completion
5 - WAVE:
Cluster of 5th wave terminals line up per 1.414-to-1.618-Fib extensions into Model's TG-Hi level.
6 - OCCULT GEO:
Euclidean Module (pink vertical ) repeats itself (see ghosted numerals 1 and 2). Also, their gap differential (marked as A) repeats itself above second module through gap height projection (marked as B), nearly hitting TG-Hi = 11218 nominal target.
Very high-probability reversal at TG-Hi = 11218 per convergence of standard and discreet geometries.
- Look for Wave's conclusive geometry over next 3-5 weeks, unless aggressive market cheats the target of a few points (near-hit).
- Minimum of 38.2-Fib retracement for multi-year swing could represent first hindrance to long-term decline.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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NOTE - I have included a few charts in TradingView's "Link To Related Ideas" illustrating instances where the standard analyses were used as a background to predictive/forecasting model and occult market geometry applications - Thank you for your supportive readership and kind support - David.
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- Major Bank FX Positions Support $USD Buoyancy:
Several major banks are taking LONG $USD positions against most other major currencies. About 80% are S/T positioning, the rest are M/T. This plays against the directional bias of the analysis for the long-term outlook, but not if considering that most of these S/P institutional plays are over a distance that corresponds to the current gap-fill til TG-Hi - Worth looking for that moment when these same banks are reversing their $USD bullish outlook.
The force behind the USDollar is not sentimental (" It's about tendencies and fears.") as much as reflexive reaction to sovereign countries pressuring their own currencies downward. Since most of the influential currencies as well as developing economies currencies are pitted against $USD, this market-wide attempt at devaluing sovereign currencies has benefited the Dollar.
Also, commodities have plummeted. Precious metals, which would have been bid under such uncertain environment, would have benefited. However, this has not been the case, and therefore, investors have sought values in the $USD. Improving US economic data have heloed support this bullish $USD outlook as well.
Other sources of investment, such as bonds would have also provided a long-term source of profits, but the easing in Europe and Japan have turned money printing behemoths to purchase their own bonds, thus driving any interest to uninteresting level, so to speak.
While the US may have pulled its foot off of the printing press, per recent announcements that QE was "done", intel suggests that its bond is now being purchased again by China in exchange for some deal that would involve keeping Gold price down - This is rumor, but makes perfect sense, since the metal has been pressured consistently downward, and remains under sustained bearish pressure.
So, all this will keep the USDollar buoyed for sure, against a forecast that calls for a counter-trend. But this is simply a case of now-and-then. The current situation is favoring the $USD for reasons explained above, whereas the forecast is suggesting a probability of reversal. Either side is not an absolute, though.
Re-post of a comment that includes this Forex pair:
Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).
Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.
Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:
$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:
It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.
However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).
If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:
$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)