Market Cycle: BTC vs. ISM; (updated)
BTC cycle low precedes the ISM cycle low by about 1 year, while the BTC and ISM cycle highs occur at roughly the same time within the market cycle. Presumably, the cycle highs are approximately coincident due to increased liquidity associated with QE?
ISM is moving higher after the dip in June 2023. If the dip in June 2023 turns out to be the low for the ISM this cycle, then the 12-15 month measurement from the BTC low in December 2022 won't be valid this time around. I hope this is the case! However, there could still be some room (time between now and the 12-15 month mark) for a rapid dip in ISM before a recovery and build-up towards ATH. Let's see how this develops...
This chart is a minor update of a previous version published on July 29, 2023:
Updates Made: Added 12-bar measurement and gray shaded rectangle beginning at the most recent BTC low in December 2022. Also added orange 15-bar measurement and orange vertical dashed line.
ISM is moving higher after the dip in June 2023. If the dip in June 2023 turns out to be the low for the ISM this cycle, then the 12-15 month measurement from the BTC low in December 2022 won't be valid this time around. I hope this is the case! However, there could still be some room (time between now and the 12-15 month mark) for a rapid dip in ISM before a recovery and build-up towards ATH. Let's see how this develops...
This chart is a minor update of a previous version published on July 29, 2023:
Updates Made: Added 12-bar measurement and gray shaded rectangle beginning at the most recent BTC low in December 2022. Also added orange 15-bar measurement and orange vertical dashed line.