U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow at 8:30am. If CPI comes in below 3% the stock market will rally strong. If the CPI print is an upside surprise the stock market will go red. If CPI comes in at 3.1% forecast the stock market will whipsaw and then go up.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It's a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The 2s10s yield curve is a measure of the difference in interest rates between the two-year and ten-year Treasury bonds, which generally tend to trend together with 10s yielding a premium to 2s. However, on rare occasions, the front end of the curve can become inverted as a result of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) policy intervention via raising short-term rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of an impending economic recession.
Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Jul 12, 2023 (Jun) 08:30 TBA% 3.1% 4.0%
Jun 13, 2023 (May) 08:30 4.0% 4.1% 4.9%
May 10, 2023 (Apr) 08:30 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%
Apr 12, 2023 (Mar) 08:30 5.0% 5.2% 6.0%
Mar 14, 2023 (Feb) 08:30 6.0% 6.0% 6.4%
Feb 14, 2023 (Jan) 09:30 6.4% 6.2% 6.5%
Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) 09:30 6.5% 6.5% 7.1%
Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) 09:30 7.1% 7.3% 7.8%
Nov 10, 2022 (Oct) 09:30 7.7% 8.0% 8.2%
Oct 13, 2022 (Sep) 08:30 8.2% 8.1% 8.2%
Sep 13, 2022 (Aug) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
Aug 10, 2022 (Jul) 08:30 8.5% 8.7% 9.1%
Jul 13, 2022 (Jun) 08:30 9.1% 8.8% 8.6%
Jun 10, 2022 (May) 08:30 8.6% 8.3% 8.3%
May 11, 2022 (Apr) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
Apr 12, 2022 (Mar) 08:30 8.5% 8.4% 7.9%
Mar 10, 2022 (Feb) 09:30 7.9% 7.9% 7.5%
Feb 10, 2022 (Jan) 09:30 7.5% 7.3% 7.0%
Jan 12, 2022 (Dec) 09:30 7.0% 7.0% 6.8%
Dec 10, 2021 (Nov) 09:30 6.8% 6.8% 6.2%
Nov 10, 2021 (Oct) 09:30 6.2% 5.8% 5.4%
Oct 13, 2021 (Sep) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.3%
Sep 14, 2021 (Aug) 08:30 5.3% 5.3% 5.4%
Aug 11, 2021 (Jul) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.4%
Jul 13, 2021 (Jun) 08:30 5.4% 4.9% 5.0%
Jun 10, 2021 (May) 08:30 5.0% 4.7% 4.2%
May 12, 2021 (Apr) 08:30 4.2% 3.6% 2.6%
Apr 13, 2021 (Mar) 08:30 2.6% 2.5% 1.7%
Mar 10, 2021 (Feb) 09:30 1.7% 1.7% 1.4%
Feb 10, 2021 (Jan) 09:30 1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It's a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The 2s10s yield curve is a measure of the difference in interest rates between the two-year and ten-year Treasury bonds, which generally tend to trend together with 10s yielding a premium to 2s. However, on rare occasions, the front end of the curve can become inverted as a result of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) policy intervention via raising short-term rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of an impending economic recession.
Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Jul 12, 2023 (Jun) 08:30 TBA% 3.1% 4.0%
Jun 13, 2023 (May) 08:30 4.0% 4.1% 4.9%
May 10, 2023 (Apr) 08:30 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%
Apr 12, 2023 (Mar) 08:30 5.0% 5.2% 6.0%
Mar 14, 2023 (Feb) 08:30 6.0% 6.0% 6.4%
Feb 14, 2023 (Jan) 09:30 6.4% 6.2% 6.5%
Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) 09:30 6.5% 6.5% 7.1%
Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) 09:30 7.1% 7.3% 7.8%
Nov 10, 2022 (Oct) 09:30 7.7% 8.0% 8.2%
Oct 13, 2022 (Sep) 08:30 8.2% 8.1% 8.2%
Sep 13, 2022 (Aug) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
Aug 10, 2022 (Jul) 08:30 8.5% 8.7% 9.1%
Jul 13, 2022 (Jun) 08:30 9.1% 8.8% 8.6%
Jun 10, 2022 (May) 08:30 8.6% 8.3% 8.3%
May 11, 2022 (Apr) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
Apr 12, 2022 (Mar) 08:30 8.5% 8.4% 7.9%
Mar 10, 2022 (Feb) 09:30 7.9% 7.9% 7.5%
Feb 10, 2022 (Jan) 09:30 7.5% 7.3% 7.0%
Jan 12, 2022 (Dec) 09:30 7.0% 7.0% 6.8%
Dec 10, 2021 (Nov) 09:30 6.8% 6.8% 6.2%
Nov 10, 2021 (Oct) 09:30 6.2% 5.8% 5.4%
Oct 13, 2021 (Sep) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.3%
Sep 14, 2021 (Aug) 08:30 5.3% 5.3% 5.4%
Aug 11, 2021 (Jul) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.4%
Jul 13, 2021 (Jun) 08:30 5.4% 4.9% 5.0%
Jun 10, 2021 (May) 08:30 5.0% 4.7% 4.2%
May 12, 2021 (Apr) 08:30 4.2% 3.6% 2.6%
Apr 13, 2021 (Mar) 08:30 2.6% 2.5% 1.7%
Mar 10, 2021 (Feb) 09:30 1.7% 1.7% 1.4%
Feb 10, 2021 (Jan) 09:30 1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
Comment:
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY = 3.0% actual
Comment:
USD vs USD / Cumulative rate of inflation:
2022-2023 = $1.03 / 3%
2021-2023 = $1.13 / 12.6%
2020-2023 = $1.18 / 17.9%
2019-2023 = $1.19 / 19.3%
2018-2023 = $1.22 / 21.5%
2017-2023 = $1.24 / 24.5%
2016-2023 = $1.27 / 27.1%
2015-2023 = $1.29 / 28.7%
2014-2023 = $1.29 / 28.9%
2013-2023 = $1.31 / 31%
2012-2023 = $1.33 / 32.9%
2011-2023 = $1.36 / 35.6%
2010-2023 = $1.40 / 39.9%
2009-2023 = $1.42 / 42.2%
2008-2023 = $1.42 / 41.7%
2007-2023 = $1.47 / 47.2%
2006-2023 = $1.51 / 51.3%
2005-2023 = $1.56 / 56.2%
2004-2023 = $1.62 / 61.5%
2003-2023 = $1.66 / 65.8%
2002-2023 = $1.70 / 69.6%
2001-2023 = $1.72 / 72.4%
2000-2023 = $1.77 / 77.2%
2022-2023 = $1.03 / 3%
2021-2023 = $1.13 / 12.6%
2020-2023 = $1.18 / 17.9%
2019-2023 = $1.19 / 19.3%
2018-2023 = $1.22 / 21.5%
2017-2023 = $1.24 / 24.5%
2016-2023 = $1.27 / 27.1%
2015-2023 = $1.29 / 28.7%
2014-2023 = $1.29 / 28.9%
2013-2023 = $1.31 / 31%
2012-2023 = $1.33 / 32.9%
2011-2023 = $1.36 / 35.6%
2010-2023 = $1.40 / 39.9%
2009-2023 = $1.42 / 42.2%
2008-2023 = $1.42 / 41.7%
2007-2023 = $1.47 / 47.2%
2006-2023 = $1.51 / 51.3%
2005-2023 = $1.56 / 56.2%
2004-2023 = $1.62 / 61.5%
2003-2023 = $1.66 / 65.8%
2002-2023 = $1.70 / 69.6%
2001-2023 = $1.72 / 72.4%
2000-2023 = $1.77 / 77.2%
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