I have recently come in to Elliott Wave Analysis (EWA) as my trading style. I enjoy looking for the Wave count/cycle, the fundamental analysis behind the Waves and, imo, the great outlook it can give on future market movements. Without further ado, here is my prediction for the USDCAD on the 15Minute charts.
Current Analysis:
Wave 1 started at 1.37146 and ended at 1.38326. Wave 1 also formed it's own, 5-Wave substructure.
Wave 2 is currently testing the 38.2% retracement. Another key factor here is the Pivot at 1.37632 acting as a S/R level.
Wave 2 has also been a "normal" or "simple" correction
Predictions:
Case A: Wave 2 is finished forming and Wave 3 will begin. A normal Wave 3 top prediction at the 161.8% extension of Wave 1 @ 1.39055. I'm predicting a "normal" Wave 3 based on the fact Wave 2 has been a "normal/simple" retracement (in comparison to an irregular or complex correction). Wave 4 is setting up to be a complex correction (trader beware) followed by an extended Wave 5.
Case B: Wave 2 breaks pivot/retracement levels and continues Wave 1 retracement. KEY LEVELS: 23.6% @ 1.37424 ; 14.6% @ 1.37318 (based on my own analysis)
In Case B, my analysis will stay valid as long as retracement does not exceed 100% of Wave 1. If Wave 2 DOES break current pivot/retracement, look for the bounce to occur at KEY LEVELS listed.
I have personally put my long order in as I believe this to be the current bottom. Current order: BUY@1.37850 SL@1.37400
NOTE: To make this trade a bit more safe, I could have set my SL a few pips BELOW the start of Wave 1. However, I believe I have a strong analysis and believe the next move is up; which is why my SL is set a bit higher. This IS FOR ANALYSIS USE ONLY. Feedback is greatly appreciated and the main reason for my posting. I want to become proficient in EWA and become the best trader possible using this analysis!
Current Analysis:
Wave 1 started at 1.37146 and ended at 1.38326. Wave 1 also formed it's own, 5-Wave substructure.
Wave 2 is currently testing the 38.2% retracement. Another key factor here is the Pivot at 1.37632 acting as a S/R level.
Wave 2 has also been a "normal" or "simple" correction
Predictions:
Case A: Wave 2 is finished forming and Wave 3 will begin. A normal Wave 3 top prediction at the 161.8% extension of Wave 1 @ 1.39055. I'm predicting a "normal" Wave 3 based on the fact Wave 2 has been a "normal/simple" retracement (in comparison to an irregular or complex correction). Wave 4 is setting up to be a complex correction (trader beware) followed by an extended Wave 5.
Case B: Wave 2 breaks pivot/retracement levels and continues Wave 1 retracement. KEY LEVELS: 23.6% @ 1.37424 ; 14.6% @ 1.37318 (based on my own analysis)
In Case B, my analysis will stay valid as long as retracement does not exceed 100% of Wave 1. If Wave 2 DOES break current pivot/retracement, look for the bounce to occur at KEY LEVELS listed.
I have personally put my long order in as I believe this to be the current bottom. Current order: BUY@1.37850 SL@1.37400
NOTE: To make this trade a bit more safe, I could have set my SL a few pips BELOW the start of Wave 1. However, I believe I have a strong analysis and believe the next move is up; which is why my SL is set a bit higher. This IS FOR ANALYSIS USE ONLY. Feedback is greatly appreciated and the main reason for my posting. I want to become proficient in EWA and become the best trader possible using this analysis!
Comment:
Case B has occurred and the pair is now testing the 23.6% and 14.6% retracement. Also, since Wave 2 has now shifted to a complex correction, expect Wave 3 to be very strong and possibly extended now. I will be keeping my eye on this trade as I did adjust my SL to below the beginning of Wave 1 @ 1.37135. Since I am still testing my own theories and strategies, I wanted to ride this one out.
Trade closed: stop reached:
My wave count was wrong on this trade. SL hit. Will reanalyze and try again!