Kumowizard

USDCAD - Bullish trend developing, but needs to correct first

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
102 2 0
I promised to publish this chart yesterday on Twitter.

Daily: Price action reversed from long term bullish Key support and trend line at 1,0610. As price managed to get higher and higher, we had more confirmation signals: weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross and Chikou cross. What's more, Price traded above the Kumo. But is it a bullish Kumo breakout? Not yet! First of all, we have a strong Key resistance here at 1,0945, and Chikou Span hit the Kumo too. Slow Stoch is overbought and turning down, will likely give a swing sell signal. DI+ line crossing back below ADX.
I think we'll see a correction down to Kijun Sen or Kumo top, so ard 1,0810-1,0830 levels, before Bulls can get in power again.

4 Hrs: Still bullish , but Chikou Span is loosing its open space ahead, getting close to Price candles. Kijun catches up to Price and ADX dropping, which means bullish trend loosing its momentum quickly. Slow Stoch zig-zag, with a bit of negative divergence to Price. We may see a local top building here ard 1,0915-1,0940, then possibly a correction lower to Key support 1,0830.

Partial TP is recommended here. Braves can try a counter trend short, but risk reward won't be better than 1:2, so do not allocate too much capital on a swing short trade.
motleifaul
2 years ago
You were right with your "correction first". How could you know?
Reply
The basic of all trading decision, especially in case of trading with Ichimoku Cloud system is to check key levels first and see what price is doing there. In this case (but in case of USD in general) price reached Key level after a decent rally, without correction and other indicators such as DMI-ADX and Slow Stoch showed it was overbought. A correction needs to happen from time to time, swings and pullbacks are part of a trend.
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