Sforex

USDCAD: How much does it fall ?. Ivey + RBC PMI next.

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
95 0 2
This week, RBC             + Ivey PMI ,and Payrolls are main data affecting to USDCAD             .

Recent days, market calls for a rate hike to BOC             because of pressure of inflation : current number 2.1%

While housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto is a big problem to deal, BOC             needs a 25bp rate hike to cool down housing market, but this is not good for economic health.

I don't think BOC             would hike rate at least in this year, but a call of rate hike is a good reason to BUY Loonie despite of falling oil             .

Back to Technical, the question in my head is how much does USDCAD             fall ?

Last week, USDCAD             broke three important supports:

Look at on the chart,

- 1.3640 support level .

- Long term ascending trend line ( red line)

- SMA100

- 38.2% Fib retracement

All of them also are strong levels.

Base on Technical view, USDCAD             should fall more and more.

However, I see it nearly reaches to its limit.

- First is SMA200 , USDCAD             hold above SMA200 for 4 years : That is a big deal if USDCAD             wants to break it. I don't believe in this option.

- Second is 50% Fib retracement. This is the limit for a correction. Any break 50% Fib level will reverse the trend to downtrend.

- Third is RSI indicator. There is floor for it, and I see RSI is testing this floor.

- Fourth is 1.400 level, this was a strong resistane level, now will become a meaningful support.

Loonie needs a strong catalyst to break those supports.

USDCAD             could fall more, but should stop at 1.3400 where it meets some buyers there. I am one buyer at 1.3400
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