Fundamentals concur - Look at my post about excess OIL inventory buildup. Till that Glut is over, the long term direction for CAD will be down except for weakness in US Dollar Index and OIL retracements . Global may drive up USD even if fed intends the other way. Donald Trump's nomination might dent S&P a bit temporarily due to uncertainty but his protectionist approach will lead to global which may make USD stronger.
Just my 2 cents. Calling a reversal but still trading cautiously.