TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.32900 Retest of broken triangle

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
956 6 22
In my last post on this pair, I noted that there was a expanding triangle developing in wave 4. Here's that post:

In the MAIN chart above, you can see that the expanding triangle was completed and prices shot up from the E point of that triangle and broke up above it to hit the .786 retrace of the previous impulse wave down and got rejected . You could've taken a buy on the breakout. I didn't. I preferred to wait for the retest for some PA confirmation. And that has now happened. Prices came back down and hit the upper TL of that expanding triangle and are now bouncing back up off of it. This is bullish PA that signals a buy.

Updatd 4HR Chart
In this updated 4Hr chart, you can see that there is a POTENTIAL cypher pattern that has also developed. I showed this also in my last post. That C point of the cypher is not set in stone yet. And if prices do reach my TP for this trade, that cypher will no longer be valid either as prices will have exceeded the limit for a cypher C point. But, just because there is the potential for a cypher does not mean it must be. Often, in an uptrend, potential cyphers get invalidated.

By my wave count seen on that 4HR Chart above, this last push up should result in a wave 5 completion of the wave (b) of the abc correction. This move up should be the retest of the highs set back on the end of september. A failed retest should result in a large wave (c) down. Another reason I am not long for this trade.

This is only a short trade to grab some pips off a high probability setup. But I am wary of testing the highs so I will be out when my TP is reached.

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Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Price revered at .618% fib(1.345 sept 29th to oct 15th low 1.283) at 1.334 today on daily chart (also a b wave can max extend 1,3 of A wave meaning it has no further fuel to run up) hanging man candle on 8 hr chart oil completing its 3rd wave of B wave and ready to move up . Dont u thing usd cad is going to fall towards 1.316 then towards 1.295
anything can happen so yes, of course it can go down. But according to my count and my view of the price action, it still needs to go up once more. Now, a couple of constructive responses her if you don't mind. There isn't any rule a stating that a wave b cannot extend beyond 1.3 of a. And it would certainly not imply that it has run out of fuel. Momentum and price action can reveal that but a wave count cannot make that determination. I don't rely on candlestick patterns so a hanging man doesn't mean much to me. And oil completing it 3rd wave of B is also just your opinion and not a fact.

Then of course, oil and the Loonie don't move 1:1. This move up in Loonie that I am predicting is a relatively small move as well. So if it moves a little does not need to mean anything to oil. Or vice-versa.

Having said all that, I do expect usdcad to start making a big move down. But it does not mean it needs to be right now.

Thanks though for your comment. It's a different point of view. Anything constructive is welcomed.
thulasi EverythingForex
Very nice chart . can we buy now at this moment sir? sorry I'm newbie...
EverythingForex dexstriker27
understanding that you are new to forex trading as you claim, then one of the first things I want to tell you is that don't just follow anyone blindly. Doing that MIGHT make you some money but you can't learn by just copying. having said that, at this point, it is below my entry so you must decide if you want to buy it or not. GL!
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