In the MAIN chart above, you can see that the expanding triangle was completed and prices shot up from the E point of that triangle and broke up above it to hit the .786 retrace of the previous impulse wave down and got rejected . You could've taken a buy on the breakout. I didn't. I preferred to wait for the retest for some PA confirmation. And that has now happened. Prices came back down and hit the upper TL of that expanding triangle and are now bouncing back up off of it. This is PA that signals a buy.
Updatd 4HR Chart
In this updated 4Hr chart, you can see that there is a POTENTIAL that has also developed. I showed this also in my last post. That C point of the is not set in stone yet. And if prices do reach my TP for this trade, that will no longer be valid either as prices will have exceeded the limit for a C point. But, just because there is the potential for a does not mean it must be. Often, in an uptrend, potential cyphers get invalidated.
By my wave count seen on that 4HR Chart above, this last push up should result in a wave 5 completion of the wave (b) of the abc correction. This move up should be the retest of the highs set back on the end of september. A failed retest should result in a large wave (c) down. Another reason I am not long for this trade.
MY TRADE PLAN
This is only a short trade to grab some pips off a high probability setup. But I am wary of testing the highs so I will be out when my TP is reached.
Want more analysis and tips on forex and trading like this? Why not join me on my facebook group? Go to: www.facebookdotcom/efxselect now and join!
Want even more in-depth complete market analysis, real-time alerts, trades advice and signals? My members get all that and more on coverage of all the markets I trade. Subscribe now! Markets will not wait for you! Go to: http://www.efxselect.com for more info and to subscribe today!
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
Sep 18th Weekly Indexes newsletter: http://bit.ly/2w2ODMH (FREE Access)
Want results like this? Join us: http://bit.ly/29x4bfM
Then of course, oil and the Loonie don't move 1:1. This move up in Loonie that I am predicting is a relatively small move as well. So if it moves a little does not need to mean anything to oil. Or vice-versa.
Having said all that, I do expect usdcad to start making a big move down. But it does not mean it needs to be right now.
Thanks though for your comment. It's a different point of view. Anything constructive is welcomed.