In the MAIN chart above, you can see that the expanding triangle was completed and prices shot up from the E point of that triangle and broke up above it to hit the .786 retrace of the previous impulse wave down and got rejected . You could've taken a buy on the breakout. I didn't. I preferred to wait for the retest for some PA confirmation. And that has now happened. Prices came back down and hit the upper TL of that expanding triangle and are now bouncing back up off of it. This is PA that signals a buy.
Updatd 4HR Chart
In this updated 4Hr chart, you can see that there is a POTENTIAL that has also developed. I showed this also in my last post. That C point of the is not set in stone yet. And if prices do reach my TP for this trade, that will no longer be valid either as prices will have exceeded the limit for a C point. But, just because there is the potential for a does not mean it must be. Often, in an uptrend, potential cyphers get invalidated.
By my wave count seen on that 4HR Chart above, this last push up should result in a wave 5 completion of the wave (b) of the abc correction. This move up should be the retest of the highs set back on the end of september. A failed retest should result in a large wave (c) down. Another reason I am not long for this trade.
MY TRADE PLAN
This is only a short trade to grab some pips off a high probability setup. But I am wary of testing the highs so I will be out when my TP is reached.
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Then of course, oil and the Loonie don't move 1:1. This move up in Loonie that I am predicting is a relatively small move as well. So if it moves a little does not need to mean anything to oil. Or vice-versa.
Having said all that, I do expect usdcad to start making a big move down. But it does not mean it needs to be right now.
Thanks though for your comment. It's a different point of view. Anything constructive is welcomed.