USDCAD, Long-term SHORT?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
When i check history of USDCAD             i saw pretty high potential short here. In 2004-01-12 price formed support which has been already broken. In 2005-05-16 that same level worked as resistance. Price retested it again in 2009-03-09 and failed to break it.

3SMA system shows in 4h chart that down trend has started. Price has bounced off once from 30ma and 50ma zone, and made pretty agressive trendline there. When you look my chart you see what im talking about. Now theres support level around 1.21021, but i dont believe that it is strong enough to move price UP. Bearish pressure is so strong that i believe it will be nice and BIG breakdown.

Any toughts?
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